ESPN's Bottom Line - Version 2.0

Sunday, December 30, 2012

Week 17 Predictions

47 Chicago at Detroit 17

17 Jacksonville at Tennessee 31

22 Houston at Indianapolis 16

35 Carolina at New Orleans 44

17 Philadelphia at NY Giants 42

19 Cleveland at Pittsburgh 13

27 Tampa Bay at Atlanta 19

17 NY Jets at Buffalo 20

6 Baltimore at Cincinnati 13

0 Kansas City at Denver 31

7 Miami at New England 48

10 Oakland at San Diego 38

3 Arizona at San Francisco 45

3 St. Louis at Seattle 37

24 Green Bay at Minnesota 20

23 Dallas at Washington 31

Last Week: 11-5
Season 150-89

Saturday, December 22, 2012

Week 16 Predictions

I need to avenge myself after my atrocious Week 15 performance.. I got a little too cocky focusing on trying to nail a game to perfection.  I lost sight of my main focus; to pick the correct winner.  For that, I apologize.  Here goes nothing...

21 Atlanta at Detroit 17
Matty Ice get's no respect.  This win will clinch the #1 seed and home field throughout the playoffs.  Can't wait to watch Seattle at Atlanta in the divisonal round.  As for the Lions, the only interesting sub-plot is Calvin Johnson's attempt to break the single-season mark in receiving yards.  I hope he doesn't though because all of his yards come in garbage time when the Lions are down by double digits.  Not as impressive as you'd think.

17 New Orleans at Dallas 44
Romo will deliver a huge win for the Cowboys before he rips Cowboys' fans hearts out with a loss on the road in Washington D.C next week.  Romo: 24-32, 312 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

29 Tennessee at Green Bay 31
Rodgers > Locker but I like the young Titans QB to give the Pack a run for their money.

20 Indianapolis at Kansas City 19

23 Buffalo at Miami 13
This is a toss-up.  I'll pick the Bills.

31 San Diego at NY Jets 27
McElroy will be a big upgrade from Sanchez but the Jets' ineptitude will continue at home.  Jets are headin' for 6-10.

28 Washington at Philadelphia 21
the Skins' win the NFC East if they win their last 2 games.  RG3 is not going to screw that up against the 4 win Eagles.

23 Cincinnati at Pittsburgh 32
Roethlisberger's gonna get this last playoff spot.  When in doubt choose the Steelers to come up in the clutch.

 36 St. Louis at Tampa Bay 34
Sam Bradford puts on a SHOW in Tampa.

3 Oakland at Carolina 35
Cam Newton > Carson Palmer.  Blow-out.

52 New England at Jacksonville 20
The Pats need 94 (47 ppg) more points this year to reach the historic 600 pt plateau.  Thus, they will go all out against the Jags.  Expect a 21-0 Pats lead after the 1st.  New England gets within 42 points of the 600 mark in Jacksonville led by Brady and his 6 TD.

24 Minnesota at Houston 38
I really want Adrian Peterson to break the rushing record.  I say All Day goes for another 200 in Houston leading to 17 of the Vikes points.  No, I don't think Christian Ponder will get the other 7; I'm thinking a defensive score.  The Texans will score at will on the Vikes though getting their 13th win of the year.  Minnesota would fall to 8-7 and basically out of the playoff race.

17 Cleveland at Denver 30
Denver is so methodical and predictable; this would be such a typical score.  But I like Peyton to get the job done.  He always does.

24 Chicago at Arizona 6
Dennis Green flips out at the thought of "crowning" the Bears before the game is even played.  So I will say although I can not guarantee a Bears victory, I will be stunned if the Cards score more than 7.  Don't worry, Dennis, the Cards won't even have a 20-0 lead to lose.  I think Hester still haunts his dreams.

17 NY Giants at Baltimore 10
When their backs are against the wall, the Giants always prevail.  Easy pick.

10 San Francisco at Seattle 17
Many experts are predicting a high score for this affair.  Kaepernick has been electric and Russell Wilson has led the Seahawks to 50 plus points in two straight weeks.  But on Sunday Night, I expect this game to be similar to the last time these 2 squads played (SF won 13-6 at home).  In Seattle, I expect the Hawks to get it done in a low scoring, control the pace type of game.  Both defenses will be able to contain their opponents' elusive quarterback.  Seahawk fans can't wait for this one.  They're gonna get rowdy.

Last Week: 5-11
Season: 139-84-1

2013 QB Predictions

Here are my predictions for all 32 teams starting quarterbacks next season...

New England- Tom Brady
Miami- Ryan Tannehill
Buffalo- Alex Smith
NY Jets- Matt Flynn

Baltimore- Joe Flacco
Cincinnati- Andy Dalton
Pittsburgh- Ben Roethlisberger
Cleveland- Brandon Weeden

Houston- Matt Schaub
Indianapolis- Andrew Luck
Tennessee- Jake Locker
Jacksonville- Tim Tebow

Denver- Peyton Manning
San Diego- Michael Vick
Oakland- Mark Sanchez
Kansas City- Geno Smith

Dallas- Tony Romo
Washington- Robert Griffin III
NY Giants- Eli Manning
Philadelphia- Nick Foles

Green Bay- Aaron Rodgers
Minnesota- Christian Ponder
Chicago- Jay Cutler
Detroit- Matthew Stafford

Atlanta- Matt Ryan
New Orleans- Drew Brees
Tampa Bay- Josh Freeman
Carolina- Cam Newton

San Francisco- Colin Kaepernick
Seattle- Russell Wilson
St. Louis- Sam Bradford
Arizona- Philip Rivers

indicates a new QB

Thursday, December 13, 2012

Week 15 Predictions

I've been doing pretty well with the picks so far this year, but 1 thing I've been lacking is a right-on-the-money pick where I correctly hit the score on both ends.  I've been so close recently... 3 weeks ago, I had SF 30-21 over NO; the score was 31-21 SF.  2 weeks ago, I had DEN 31-24 over TB; the score was 31-23 DEN. This week, I had NYJ 17-9 over JAC; the score was 17-10 NYJ.  1 point off in a game 3 weeks in a row.

I've also had a bunch of other close calls in the past 3 weeks (Mia/Sea 19-16; score was 24-21 Mia, Cle/Pit 23-17; score was 20-14 Cle, Jac/Ten 21-20; score was 24-19 Jac, Chi/Min 28-13; score was 28-10 Chi, Sf/Mia 27-10; score was 27-13 Sf, Ind/Ten 23-19; score was 27-23 Ind, and Ne/Hou 41-17; score was 42-14 Ne).

I'm hoping this week I can hit one on the head... to the picks...

31 Cincinnati at Philadelphia 17
I was between a double-digit Cincy win or an Eagle win by the skin of their teeth.  This is a very similar dilemma I had in picking CLE @ SD in week 8.  That week, I went with a Cleveland win by 1 and I nailed it (they won 7-6; I predicted 17-16).  This week, I'm going with the double-digit win.  A.J Green gets back on track with a 100 yds and a score.

24 NY Giants at Atlanta 26
The Falcons struggled on the road in New York last year losing in the playoffs 24-2 to the G-Men.  After getting of to an early 2-0 lead via a safety, Atlanta was embarrassed by the Giants.  This playoff debacle only added to the critics voice that the Falcons can't win big games.  Matt Ryan has something to prove; he will have a big game at home in the dome.  With 6 minutes to go in the game, Matt Bryant will hit a 53 yd fg to put Atl down 24-23.  After a Giants drive that ends in a punt, Ryan will drive his team down the field leading to a Bryant 46 yarder as time expires.  Huge win for Atlanta and a huge loss for the Giants who enter this game only 1 game ahead in the NFC East.

17 Minnesota at St. Louis 23
Two very surprising teams going head to head here.  Before the season, I thought Minny was a doormat and St. Louis was a frisky 5 or 6 win team.  I did not take into account that Adrian Peterson was super-human and would recover from his injury this quickly and effectively.  Final statline: Adrian Peterson 29 carries, 171 yds, TD but the Rams get the win as Christian Ponder mails in another dud performance.

7 Jacksonville at Miami 17
Chad Henne and Montell Ernest (shares my middle name) Owens take their talents to South Beach  Although the relatively unknown running back scampered for 91 and a score last week, I think the solid Dolphins rush D stifles the former Maine Black Bear.  Pretty boring game here; I don't think the Jags ruin their chance at the #1 pick in Miami.

14 Green Bay at Chicago 20
Pack are on the upswing; Bears are free-falling.  With a win on Sunday, the Packers would clinch the NFC North, but I'm predicting a bit of a suprise.  With their backs against the wall, the Bears will respond with a fantastic defensive performance.  Too many people are going for GB right now; it just makes sense that Chicago will come back with a win.

17 Washington at Cleveland 19
Kirk Cousins is starting so I'm changing this prediction to a Browns win.  The Browns are on a frisky 3 game win streak but the Redskins need this one to stay in the playoff hunt.  Since RG3 can't go, I think the Browns will best the skins improving to 6-8.  This Cleveland 4 game win streak would not be a true reflection of the Browns, however.  They would have beat a Skins team without Griffin, Kansas City (awful), Oakland (also awful) and a Steeler team led by Charlie Batch (still awful).

20 Denver at Baltimore 24
Denver is 0-3 against elite teams this year (their best wins came vs PIT and @ CIN).  I expect the trend to continue as the Ravens get a win with Ray Lewis back on the field.  Lewis will inspire Baltimore with his play.  I predict Denver ends up with the #3 seed and the Ravens end up with the #4 though as Baltimore will lose 1 or 2 of their last 2 games and Denver faces CLE and KC at home (two easy wins for Peyton).

15 Indianapolis at Houston 34
The Texans get themselves back into the Superbowl conversation with a blow-out win vs division rival Indianapolis.  Up 31-7 in the mid 4th, Luck throws a TD and runs it in for the 2 PC.  Houston tacks on a fg as Schaub and crew roll to their 12th win.  A big day for Foster: 25 rush, 133 yds, 2 TD

30 Tampa Bay at New Orleans 27
The Muscle Hamster goes crazy in New Orleans leading Tampa Bay back to 500.  Brees and the Saints are out of the playoff hunt; I see them losing 2 of their last 3 ending at 6-10.

36 Detroit at Arizona 14
The Lions have played some good games in the past few weeks but they have been unable to finish the job.  They've lost 5 straight but Arizona has lost 9 straight.  The Cards mailed in one of the most pathetic performances in NFL history last week losing 58-0 to a superior Seahawks squad.  When asked who the starting quarterback will be in week 15, coach Ken Whisenhunt jokingly asked the reporter if he could suit up.

13 Carolina at San Diego 16
Coming off a 287 passing yd, 116 rush yd and 3 total TD afternoon, Cam is posied for a bad game on the road against an underrated Charger D.  It's also worth mentioning that I am in the semi-finals of my fantasy league and my opponent has Cam Newton starting this week.  I'm feeling a shaky game on both sides with the Chargers escaping by 3.

20 Seattle at Buffalo 21
After a 58-0 bashing of the lowly Cardinals, I expect Seattle to fly cross country to Buffalo and be upset.  The Seahawks will be up 20-14 early in the 4th quarter.  They will have controlled most of the game but Fitzpatrick will mount a game-winning drive in the final few minutes.  This performance may be enough to keep his job next year.  If not, I'm sure the Harvard alum could find a nice backup gig for next year.  As for the Seahawks, they would drop to 8-6 with this loss but I still think they will make the playoffs.

34 Pittsburgh at Dallas 27
At home against the woeful Chargers, Pitt got beat bad; they were down 27-3 at one point.  People expected Big Ben to cruise to victory upon returning from injury, but he played like someone who had been out of action for a few weeks.  I think Roethlisberger bounces back big-time in Dallas as Pitt needs this one to keep pace with the Bengals.  For the Cowboys, this loss would effectively end their season causing Dez Bryant to get the hand surgery he really needs.  He is playing through the injury because Dallas has a chance at the playoffs.  I think the 'boys get off to an early lead, end the first half up 20-10, but Romo throws a couple picks in the second half to seal the teams fate.  This will be a fun one to watch.

21 Kansas City at Oakland 24
To quote the great Lil Wayne, "I said Yuck."  My exact response upon seeing this game on the NFL agenda this week.  These teams have a combined 5 wins.  Atlanta has more double the amount of wins on their own and people don't even believe in them.  Although Brady Quinn has shown to be at least an above-average human being, he hasn't shown that he can be a top 40 QB in this league.  That was not a typo.  Carson Palmer, on the other hand, hasn't won a game since October 28th.  Since Halloween, the Raiders have been abysmal giving up at least 34 points in 4 of their 6 losses.  (20 and 26 points allowed, respectively, in other 2 losses).  I'm predicting an overtime affair that ends in Sebastian Janikowski nailing a 56 yarder.

24 San Francisco at New England 28
New England did exactly what I thought they would last week; they pounced on the previously one loss Texans.  Now, Colin Kaepernick and the niners come to town in round 2 of the Pats deathly home-stand.  I expect a close one but in the end I trust Brady over the young Kaepernick.  I predict a couple mistakes down the stretch by the inexperienced niners QB costs em.

20 NY Jets at Tennessee 10
And on Monday Night Football we have the much-worse-than-their-record-indicates 6-7 Jets in Nashville to face the just-as-bad-as-their-record-indicates 4-9 Titans.  I'm picking the Jets for a few reasons...
1) I'm a Jet fan and I'm rooting for them as they still have a shot at the playoffs.  Somehow.
2) The Titans seem like such a classic 4-12 team so they will probably lose their last 3
3) I want to see how John Gruden will go about effusively praising the Jets.  If the Jets have the game locked up, Gruden will start talking about how they're 7-7 and only 1 game back in the playoff hunt.  He will feel the dire need to effusively praise someone on the Jets and I would love see how it plays out when he musters the words "Sanchez" and "winner" in the same sentence.  Will Mike Tirico get fed up and blow up? Will Gruden, out of disgust for himself. quit on the spot once he realizes he's praising Mark Sanchez?  Will he then accept a head coaching job at a low D1 school because he already rejected the Tennessee job and had nowhere else to go? So many questions.

Last Week: 11-5
Season: 134-73-1

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Week 14 Predictions

34 Denver at Oakland 24
Oakland has not won since October 28th and Denver has not lost since October 7th.  After starting 2-3, Denver has now clinched the division sporting a 9-3 record.  There's no question in my mind that Peyton will go to work on the paltry Raider secondary and get the Broncos their 10th win.  Peyton's got his mind set on the #2 seed in the AFC.

20 St. Louis at Buffalo 16
Both of these teams have 5 wins, but the Rams are just a better squad.  I think the stout Rams D will shut down the potent two-headed rush attack of Fred Jackson and C.J Spiller as the Rams get their 2nd win on the road.

31 Dallas at Cincinnati 24
Cincy's been riding a 4 game win streak putting them in the wild-card hunt in the AFC.  Dallas is 6-6 coming off a home win against the Nick Foles' led Eagles.  At first, I predicted Cincy to win this one but upon hearing the news of the tragedy involving Cowboys defense players Josh Brent and Jerry Brown, I am switching my pick to Dallas.  In October of 2011, the Raiders defeated the Texans a day after their legendary owner Al Davis passed away.  I predicted Houston to win but after the game, I realized I overlooked the fact that the Raiders would ban together as a team following a tragedy.  I vowed I would not miss another one of those picks again.  This year, I haven't missed 1 of those games yet as I am 2/2 on those picks (IND over GB after Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia and KC over CAR last week following the Jovan Belcher tragedy).  Dallas will ban together and win this one.

10 Kansas City at Cleveland 19
Despite their heavy-hearts, the Chiefs banded together to focus on beating Carolina at home last week.  Brady Quinn actually had a solid game, throwing for 201 yards and 2 scores.  Quinn transformed from a terrible QB into a competent one on Sunday, in fact, he continued his performance into his post-game press conference.  However, I believe Quinn will revert back to his old ways this week, throwing a couple picks and less than 200 yards in Cleveland.  The Browns are poised to capture their 3rd win in a row.  Woah.

19 Tennessee at Indianapolis 23
I don't know what I was thinking last week when I went against #ChuckStrong in my predictions.  I apologize to the entire Indianapolis Colts organization.  The Titans have no chance.  #ChuckStrong

17 Chicago at Minnesota 13
Two weeks ago, Minny got blown out in Chicago but this week I think they put up more of a fight.  Adrian Peterson is on a mission as he has amassed 1,446 rushing yds thus far.  You better believe he has 2,000 in his sights.  He needs to average 138.5 rush yds per game to accomplish the feat. The Cashier will get the ball early and often in this one, but I like Chicago to barley scrape away with the win.

13 Philadelphia at Tampa Bay 31
The last time the Eagles won a game, the MLB was still in session.  Regular season, not post-season. This decimated Eagles squad (physically and mentally) is going to get hammered in Tampa by a Bucs team that is hungry for a wild-card berth.

13 Baltimore at Washington 35
The Ravens are the worst 9-3 team I have ever seen.  They've won around 4 or 5 games this year they really shouldn't have.  Opponents of Baltimore this year just have a knack for giving away the game at the most opportune times.  RG3 is going to go to town on this Ravens D that is going to be without the great Ray Lewis once again.  Ray is not eligible to return until next week vs Denver.  Blow-out in the nation's capital.

24 Atlanta at Carolina 17
Several Panther players felt disrespected after cameras caught Matt Ryan yelling for Carolina to get off his field.  They are using this insignificant moment as fuel to motivate them to beat Atlanta.  Last time these squads met, Cam had the game locked up but could not secure a first down to secure the victory.  Carolina punted; Atlanta started the drive at their own 1.  Then Matty Ice connected with Roddy White for a 60 yard reception which led to a Matt Bryant field goal to win the game.  Simply put, Atlanta knows how to win games and Carolina knows how to give them away.

17 NY Jets at Jacksonville 9
Tim Tebow SHOULD be starting this one in his hometown of Jacksonville, Florida but Rex Ryan is starting Mark Sanchez instead.  The Jets still believe they have a chance at the playoffs because they have not been officially mathematically eliminated yet.  They will throw the kitchen sink at Jacksonville and will come away with the victory in a low-scoring affair.  At this point, it's in the Jags favor to keep losing in order to secure the #1 pick in April.

13 San Diego at Pittsburgh 24
Big Ben will make a smooth transition back to the grid-iron with a double-digit win at Heinz.  San Diego is terrible; I don't understand how anyone can pick them right now.

10 Miami at San Francisco 27
I predicted this exact score for a niners win over the Rams last week.  Unfortunately, I wasn't close as the Rams eeked out a 16-13 win in overtime.  I'm keeping this score for the niners this week; Reggie Bush has not had 20 carries or 100 yards rushing in a game since Week 2 when he hit both of those marks.  Expect the trend to continue as the niners D puts up another spectacular performance against an AFC East team.  San Francisco has allowed a total of 3 points to their 2 AFC East opponents thus far (Jets-0 in week 4 and Bills-3 in week 5)

3 Arizona at Seattle 16
Russell Wilson hushed critics last week after a huge comeback win on the road in Chicago.  With John Skelton in their sights (2 TD, 5 INT this year) and Ryan Lindley backing up (0 TD, 5 INT this year) the Seahawks D is salivating over this matchup.  They are thinking shut-out but I'll give the Cards a gentlemen's 3 spot.

37 New Orleans at NY Giants 31
This game is pretty important for both teams.  The Giants are now only a game up on Washington and Dallas in the NFC East.  On the other side, the Saints need to run the table to have a chance at a wild card berth.  I think that with their backs against the wall, the Saints will rise to the occassion.  Look for a fast start the G-Men (up 14-0 mid-way through the 1st quarter) only to see Brees and Co come back and eventually steal the lead late in the third.  WHO DAT nation is not going down without a fight.  Expect a high scoring back and forth affair that will capture the attention of the nation from 4-7 sunday as the other two 4 o clock games stink.  Why are there only 3 4 o clock games?

21 Detroit at Green Bay 38
The Lions have lost 4 in a row now, the last 2 being heart-breaking losses.  On Thanksgiving Day, Detroit HAD the game and gave it away to Houston.  Last Sunday, Detroit had a two TD lead erased by the Colts.  Detroit was up 33-21 in that game with as little as 2 and a half minutes to go.  That's a Tebow-esque sort of comeback by Luck and crew.  This week, I expect Detroit to get blown out in Lambeau.  This would be the first game Detroit gets blown-out in all year.  They haven't lost by more than 10 points in any game this year, yet they have incurred 8 losses.  This is simply a case of a team that can't finish.  

17 Houston at New England 41
New England is gonna kill Houston on Monday Night causing people to hurl themselves off the Texan bandwagon.  I still love Houston as a Super Bowl contender but I feel a statement win by the Pats coming.  Just a gut feeling.

Last Week: 8-8
Season: 123-68-1

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Week 13 Predictions

34 New Orleans at Atlanta 30
Wouldn't it be funny if Atlanta secures the #1 seed in the NFC and wins a playoff game even though New Orleans bested them twice during the regular season?  That's what I'm feeling here.  Saints fanatics will be able to brag about that, but not much else.  Look for the Saints to key in on stopping Rowdy Roddy White as he talked a bit too much smack after the Falcons loss in southern Louisiana.

33 Jacksonville at Buffalo 37
A Chad Henne/Ryan Fitzpatrick shoot-out in Buffalo!  A fans dream!  Ignoring my sarcastic tone for a minute, I do think both teams will put up some offense in this contest.  However, it will be due to both teams' atrocious defenses rather than juggernaut offenses.  Expect C.J Spiller to receive plenty carries in this one as Chan Gailey was criticized for the absence of a Spiller carry in the last 13 minutes of the Colts game.  Spiller had 107 rush yds on only 14 carries.  Look for Jags under the radar receiver Cecil Shorts will have a big game, as well.

14 Seattle at Chicago 23
I think the Bears get a pick 6; they haven't had a defensive score in 3 weeks (a long time for this squad).  Brandon Browner and Richard Shermon will be bouncing off the walls (see what I did there?) in disappointment in Russell Wilson's inability to move the ball against Chicago's D.  Browner and Sherman will be the corners for the Hawks this week as they appeal their 4 game suspension for taking Adderall.  Two good defenses square off, but Chicago drops Seattle to 500.

27 San Francisco at St. Louis 10
San Francisco is the better team, but the last time these two teams met, the game ended in a draw (stop looking so confused Donovan Mcnabb).  Colin Kaepernick has the "hot hand" as Jim Harbough insists, but is it a mistake to bench the veteran Alex Smith?  The niners insulted him by attempting to acquire Peyton Manning and now Smith has lost his starting job solely because Kaepernick played well when he was injured.  Alex Smith is 19-5 in the Harbough era...  and he has only thrown 10, I repeat, 10 interceptions in that span (less than 1/2 per game).  He also sports a nifty 104.1 passer rating this year.  Back to the issue at hand, Kaepernick will lead San Fran to victory only inspiring more controversy.

35 New England at Miami 17
Not much to say about this one.  The Brady Bunch will prevail.  Jet fans need to cling to the hope that the Pats will embarrass the 'Fins worse than they embarrassed the Jets.  On second thought, that is not possible.  Regardless, Miami will lose by double digits.

29 Arizona at NY Jets 13
Coming off the heels of one of the most embarrassing losses in recent memory, the Jets look to get a bounce-back home win against a reeling (7 straight losses) Arizona team.  However, I predict the Cards get off the snide with a statement win at MetLife Stadium.  The Cards' only have 1 defensive/special teams TD this year.  I foresee the Cards doubling that in this game with a Patrick Peterson punt return for a TD and a Peterson interception return for TD.  This game just has the makings of a classic Arizona D/ST explosion and the Cards haven't had one of those games yet this season.  

20 Indianapolis at Detroit 27
Matthew Stafford played a great game against the stingy Texans D last week throwing for 441 yards and 2 scores.  He's hit his stride recently and I expect the trend to continue home in the motor city against Andrew Luck and the Colts.

13 Minnesota at Green Bay 34
Aaron Rodgers apologized to Packer fans last weekend, a Tebow-esque maneuver, for the shallacking the Giants put on Green Bay.  Rodgers and the Pack will show resilience as they get a win at home vs the Vikes.  What happened to Christian Ponder?  After a pick-free first 4 games (Vikes were 3-1) he has thrown 9 interceptions in Minny's last 7 games (Vikes are 3-4).

31 Houston at Tennessee 19
Houston has played two bad games in a row (both ended in overtime victories) and now go down to Nashville to face a Titans team that just lost to the Jags.  There's definitely trap game potential here.  Houston essentially has the division locked up but they are focused on getting the #1 seed.  The Texans play at New England next week.  Could they trip up in this game because they are focused on the Pats? I say the Titans get off to an early lead but Schaub and Foster get their act together.  The Texans are too good to lose this one.

17 Carolina at Kansas City 20
I am changing this pick upon hearing the news of KC starting LB Jovan Belcher's horrific murder/suicide.  The Chiefs will be playing with a heavy heart in this one and I believe they will form together as a unit and win this game.  They will either be blown out because their heads aren't in the game or they will come together.  I am going with the latter.

24 Tampa Bay at Denver 31
The Bucs are in the running for a wild card berth in the NFC and the Broncos have all but locked up the AFC West division.  I still like Peyton to get this win at Mile High.  Tampa Bay is dead last in the NFL in passing yds given up per game and Peyton is 6th in passing yds per game.  I think Manning leads Denver to victory through the air.

11 Cleveland at Oakland 17
Two 3-8 teams square off in Oakland.  Pretty boring game; both teams are near the bottom of the AFC.  Look for Marcel Reese to be a playmaker in this one even if Darren McFadden plays.  I'm feeling a low-scoring affair with a random two point conversion for Cleveland making it 14-11 Oakland with a six minutes to go.  On the subsequent possession, Sebastian Janikowski will hit a long FG.  With 2 minutes left, Brandon Weeden will lead a drive in an attempt to win the game, but will fail miserably.  I'm trying to make this game a little bit interesting here.  

30 Cincinnati at San Diego 20
Andy Dalton's trying to get his team in the playoffs and the Chargers just continue to find ways to lose.(this converted 4th and 29 by Ray Rice last week paints the picture of San Diego's season).  This team is 25th in total offense and 20th in passing defense.  They just have no heart, no desire, no sense of urgency.  Simply, this game is important for Cincinnati but doesn't mean much for San Diego.  In classic 2012 Chargers fashion, they will crumble.

10 Pittsburgh at Baltimore 24
Charlie Batch

7 Philadelphia at Dallas 24
The Eagles are in disarray and the Cowboys need a win to stay in the playoff hunt.  It's a matter of a desperate Cowboys team opposed by a hopeless Eagles team.  I'm going to go with desperate over hopeless.

23 NY Giants at Washington 20
The last time these teams met, the G-MEN bested the 'Skins in a back-and-forth fourth quarter.  I foresee a close affair once again, picking Eli to come up clutch in crunch time just like he did in Week 7.

I would be in third place among these experts right now (I subtract 1 win from each because they counted the SF/STL game as a win for all; I counted it as a tie)...

Last Week: 13-3
Season: 115-60-1

Chinese word of the day: 盖帽 (gaimao)  definition: block (as in blocking a shot in a game of basketball)
source: Yufei Zhang (Georgey Boy).  Kid's an NBA enthusiast from China.

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Week 12 Predictions

41 Houston at Detroit 10
Houston will show that their escape-victory home against the Jags was a fluke.  Coming off the heels of  a game in which they were down 2 touchdowns with 6 min to go, the Texans will blow the door off the Lions.  Detroit fans will exit the gates at half-time as Houston will be up 34-3.  Foster will run in for 2 scores, Schaub will throw for 2 TD and the defense will snag a pick 6 to end the first half.  Houston will show that they are an offensive and defensive juggernaut and quiet the critics who opened their mouths after Wade Phillips D gave up 37 points to a Chad Henne led squad last week.

20 Washington at Dallas 16
On the National stage, I foresee Dallas will crumble.  RG3 will showcase his talent to all Thanksgiving day football enthusiasts as Tony Romo will fail to mount a comeback TD drive in the 4th quarter.  I have all 3 home teams on Thanksgiving losing this year.

17 New England at NY Jets 14
On Thanksgiving night, the Jets will raise their fans hopes up by playing a solid 2nd half, tied at 7.  In the 3rd quarter, however, the Patriots will go up 17-7.  At the onset of the 4th quarter, the Jets will score either a fluky special teams TD or a fluky, poor Patriot-secondary driven TD raising fans' hopes once again.  Sanchez will then mount terrible drive after terrible drive as the Pats hold on to win by 3.  Especially coming after a road win, a loss at home in a winnable game that I have described would be disappointing.  Classic Jets.

13 Minnesota at Chicago 28
After an early rush TD by Adrian Peterson, the Bears D will return to form.  Ponder won't throw any TD in this one unless your counting the one I expect him to fling to the Bears D.  Yes, Jason Campbell is absolutely atrocious but all he has to do in this contest is give the ball to Forte and throw quick passes to Marshall in space.  The Vikings D is not the niners D.  Bears improve to 8-3.

27 Oakland at Cincinnati 39
I'm predicting this incredibly odd score because I feel that this is supposed to be an incredibly boring game so therefore it will be an incredibly exciting one.  If you own Andy Dalton or Carson Palmer in fantasy, start them without hesitation for this shoot-out.  AJ Green/BJGE will go off, as well.  Some weird stuff will happen in this one, too.  Maybe a safety.  Maybe 2 punt returns for TD.  Maybe a fan runs onto the field shirtless spewing profanity.  Maybe Carson Palmer doesn't throw a pick (he's thrown one in every game but 2).  Regardless, the Bengals get their 6th victory of the year putting them in the hunt for a wild card berth.  

17 Pittsburgh at Cleveland 23
Byron Leftwich out, Charlie Batch in.  No, this is not a mediocre Arena Football team's QB situation, this is the Pittsburgh Steelers' QB situation. Batch will throw a TD or two, but he will also throw a pick or three.  Trent Richardson will "get his" vs Pitt's staunch D as he has rushed for 95 yds or more in his past 3 contests.  If they want to make the playoffs, the Steelers need to get Big Ben back ASAP (not rocky).      

21 Buffalo at Indianapolis 41
Coming off a blowout lose in New England (Colts gave up an astounding 59 points, although 21 of these points were from defensive/special teams TD), Indy needs to make a statement at home.  Yes, the Bills are on a frisky 1 game winning streak, but they are still a below average NFL team.  Andrew Luck takes care of business here.

24 Denver at Kansas City 14
Kansas City is actually 9th in terms of pass yds/game on defense.  I guess they aren't completely inept.  Since starting Bronco back Willis McGahee is now out 6-8 weeks, will I pick KC to win, keying in on Peyton to stop the pass? Nope. Not a chance.

16 Seattle at Miami 19
A battle of rookies.  Russell Wilson vs Ryan Tannehill.  Wisconsin v. Texas A&M.  12th in passer rating vs. 30th in passer rating.  I'm a big fan of Wilson and the 'Hawks but I like the Dolphins to get the win in Miami.  Seattle will lose on the road, fall out of a wild-card spot in the NFC and will then go on the road to Chicago next week.  Miami will improve to 5-6 and then come home for New England.  I foresee a defensive struggle in South Florida.

17 Atlanta at Tampa Bay 34
The Falcons turned the ball over 6 times last week prompting experts to pat themselves on the back for claiming Atlanta wasn't "that good" when Matt Ryan's team was perfect half-way through the year.  Atlanta is 9-1 though and they're 3 games ahead of the Bucs for the division lead with 6 games to go.  I'm higher on Atlanta than most, but I still think Josh Freeman gets the Bucs within 2 games of 1st the NFC South.  Remember when Tampa Bay was 1-3?  Remember when Tampa Bay was 2-4?  Remember when experts predicted them to crumble after losing stud G Carl Nicks for the year (having lost their other stud G David Joseph for the year in the pre-season).  Remember when Doug Martin scored 51 fantasy points in a week.  I remember all this stuff and I will also remember media members proclaiming Tampa Bay the 2012-2013 NFC South champ after winning this game.  Atlanta will win the division but Tampa will win this game.

20 Tennessee at Jacksonville 21
Both these teams stink.  Yuck.  I'd rather wash the dirty dishes for 56 different families on Thanksgiving night than watch this game in its entirety.  Speaking of the number 56, there is NO WAY I can see Tennessee being 5-6.  They are just too damn awful.  I don't care that they blew out Miami on the road 2 weeks ago, they are going to lose in North Florida sunday.  Let's go Blaine Gabbert! (O wait he's injured)... Let's go Chad Henne! (I may be starting to regret this one)

24 Baltimore at San Diego 36
The Ravens BARELY got the victory against Byron Leftwich.  Dude's motion is more elongated than a set-up relief pitcher who throws submarine style.  Philip Rivers is gonna have a classic "Remember, I'm actually a pretty skilled QB despite the fact that my throwing motion is weird, my team is below 500, my stats stink, and my pants are on too tight."  Rivers has not pulled one of these games all year, so he's definitely due.  These Rivers performances are usually followed by multiple losses, mass disappointment in the greater San Diego area, and angry emails from bitter fantasy owners that end up in the spam section of Philip River's inbox.  The fact that Ed Reed may be suspended for this one only adds to the possibility of one of these Rivers classics.  I can't wait to see Norv's face next week after River's chews out one of his receivers for dropping a poorly thrown pass while the Chargers are down 10 with 2 min to go at home against Cincy.

10 St. Louis at Arizona 6
All 3 of St. Louis's wins this year have come at home in the dome.  2 Sunday's ago in San Francisco, however, the Rams played a good road game that ended in a tie.  They get their first win on the road in Zona thanks to Bradford's game management skills.  He will avoid turnovers which will make it difficult for the Cards to score considering their offense can't move the ball. (70 yards passing last week)

30 San Francisco at New Orleans 21
I refuse to buy into the Saints as a legit playoff team.  Colin Kaepernick (or Alex Smith) will shred this swiss-cheese Saints D.  And San Fran's D will stifle Brees.  Close game, but the niners are gonna prove who the real contender is here.

34 Green Bay at NY Giants 31
Like I predicted a few weeks ago, the Giants lost to Cincy leading to worry and doubt among their fan-base.  Eli has looked dreadful lately but the Giants are now at home off a bye.  I like them to get off to an early lead, but ARodg and crew will bring the Pack back like they did last week in Mo-Town.  Packers win on a FG as time expires leading to even more criticism of Eli among Giant fans.

27 Carolina at Philadelphia 24
I will continue to predict Carolina wins with Cam Newton going off (ie. Dal at Car in week 7and TB at Car last week) until it happens.  I am determined.  Carolina's defense is incredibly mediocre though so I think Philly makes it close.  3-8 after starting 3-1?  Instead of actually firing Andy Reid, Eagles fans may resort to lighting the man on fire.  Boy do I like picking against Philly.

Last Week: 12-2
Season: 102-57-1

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Week 11 Predictions

Last Week, I hit 11 of the 13 games (SF/STL ended in a tie so I'm not counting that as a win or a loss)... my record was better than every record last week from these NFL experts expert picks.  I've hit my stride going 31-9-1 in the last 3 weeks.  To the picks...

21 Miami at Buffalo 30
Miami is coming off a home blowout against Tennessee and Buffalo almost eeked out a victory at Foxborough.  I think Buffalo surprises everyone by winning at home without Fred Jackson.

14 Arizona at Atlanta 27
After a tough loss in New Orleans, Atlanta will get back on track at home against the inept Cards who have not won since week 4.  I'm feeling a late Falcons defensive score capping off a double digit victory.

6 Cleveland at Dallas 34
Brandon Weeden has been awful lately and he will be forced to throw often if Trent can't run on the Cowboys D.  Dallas has played good football the past 4 weeks since their late-game debacle at Baltimore.  Their due for a home blowout and the Browns are the perfect opponent for the job.

37 Green Bay at Detroit 24
Green Bay will continue to take care of business extending their win streak to 5 games.

17 Cincinnati at Kansas City 10
I still don't think Cincy is a good team but Kansas City is just absolutely awful.  The Chiefs had so many chances to beat PIT on MNF and just blew every1 of them.  AJ Green will catch a couple TD at Arrowhead en route to a Bengals win.

21 Philadelphia at Washington 33
The Eagles are in total disarray and the Redskins have not won in 3 weeks.  RG3 will get the Skins back on track and Eagles fans will continue to call for Andy Reid's head.  

17 Tampa Bay at Carolina 20
Everyone is ridin' Tampa Bay right now.  People are a bit too high on this Bucs team that I foresee losing to the Panthers on the road.  This is my latest prediction for the game that Cam is gonna go OFF.

3 Jacksonville at Houston 24
If you are in an elimination pool and have not used Houston yet, use the Texans this week.  That is all.

16 NY Jets at St. Louis 10
The Jets have looked AWFUL lately but I expect a Rams let-down game at home.  This is a classic "Jets win will spark absolutely ridiculous chatter from various Jets players (and possibly Rex Ryan) that they could potentially make the playoffs only to end in a 5 or 6 win season."

27 New Orleans at Oakland 28
Classic trap game in Oakland.  Everyone thinks the Saints are gonna come back and get a wild card spot (which isn't gonna happen).  The Saints may be looking ahead to their home game against he niners and their rematch in Atlanta.  I see a 2 minute drill from Carson Palmer to beat the Saints.  The Raiders have given up 97 points over the past 2 weeks but I think their defense gets it together and holds Brees and crew to under 30.

17 San Diego at Denver 27
Peyton Manning has found his groove in Denver these days.  Peyton is averaging 302 passing yards per game and has a TD/INT ratio of 10/3 in his last 4 contests (all wins) and now he faces the Charger team that got him started on this roll (recall the game when Denver was down 24-0 at half but won 35-24)  Oh yea, and Philip Rivers is an interception machine.

13 Indianapolis at New England 38
Hey I love the Colts and the whole #ChuckStrong thing and the fact that they're 6-3 is awesome.  I think they will get the #6 seed.  However, on the road in New England I think Andrew Luck struggles. Right now, I would give the MVP award to Luck.  But, he did struggle a bit last week in Jacksonville (227 yds, 1 int, 1 fum, 0 td).  Pats blowout in the annual IND/NE showdown that just doesn't have the same feel to it.

26 Baltimore at Pittsburgh 23
I'll take Baltimore over a Byron Leftwich led Steelers team.  Although I don't think Leftwich is as bad as people think.  Ravens get a win at Heinz field extending their AFC North lead to 2 games.

6 Chicago at San Francisco 12
Jason Campbell v. Colin Kaepernick is that matchup here.  Two of the best teams in the league (with the 2 best defenses) both lost their starting QB last week to injury.  This will be a very low scoring affair.  I foresee a zero touchdown game with 6 field goals in total.  I think the niners D will stifle Campbell but Kaepernick is one of the most competent backups in the NFL.  He'll get San Fran down the field enough times to get a dozen points.

Byes: Tennessee, Minnesota, Seattle, NY Giants

Last Week: 11-2-1
Season: 90-55-1

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Week 10 Predictions

24 Indianapolis at Jacksonville 17

20 NY Giants at Cincinnati 27
Eli is 1 bad game away (and a loss bringing his team to 6-4) from complaints of his performance to begin to unravel from Giants fans.  Cincinnati is on a 4 game losing skid but I think they get off the snide at home against the G-Men.  Giants fans will start to worry (6-4 going against GB in week 11) but they will win the division in the end.

13 Tennessee at Miami 33
The titans stink and Miami is 1 game out of the 6th spot in the AFC.  I like a blowout in South FLA.

17 Detroit at Minnesota 21
I'm just not on board with this Lions team.  They are 4-4 but have only played 2 good, complete games (the last 2).  And 1 of those 2 was against the Jags.  Ponder gets his groove back at home as the Vikes stifle Stafford just like they did in week 4.

17 Buffalo at New England 34
Brady's rollin' right now.  The Pats will not trip up against Buffalo (like they did in week 3 last year when Brady threw 4 picks).  Easy call.

38 Atlanta at New Orleans 28
People are not giving Atlanta enough credit.  Those people include me as I picked Dallas (a team that can't finish) to win sunday night in the George Dome against a team that has been winning close games all year. (now 5-0 in games decided by 7 points or less)  That Saints D is really terrible... Ryan will lead the Falcons to a 9-0 start.

24 San Diego at Tampa Bay 31
Both teams are 4-4, but I happen to think 1 team is solid and 1 is awful.  I'll take the solid team at home.    Doug Martin is unstoppable

27 Denver at Carolina 12
Cam's coming off a win in DC but I think reality sets back in for the second year QB against a potent Broncos pass rush.  Peyton is playing at an MVP level right now and there is no way he will let Denver lose against the 2-6 Panthers.

21 Oakland at Baltimore 22
The injury-ridden Ravens squad will pull out another ugly victory.  Ray Rice finally got the ball over 20 times last week and he made the Browns pay, running for 98 yards and a score.  Now Rice is going against a team that allowed 251 rush yards and 4 TD to the muscle hamster last week.  Rice should touch the rock around 30 times in this one.

6 NY Jets at Seattle 16
The Jets have been a mess all year and now they travel up to Seattle to play the Hawks who are 4-0 at home.  That homefield advantage coupled with an elite D will be too much for Rex and crew.

27 Dallas at Philadelphia 24
The loser of this game essentially has their fate settled.  The loser will not be contending for a playoff spot and the winner will be given some sort of life.  I think Dallas is a much better team than Philly; their problem is that they make dumb mistakes at the worst times.  Philly has O-line issues, coach issues, turnover issues; issues that need to be addressed this off-season in order to get the Eagles back to being relevant.  Romo pulls out a close one. (that feels really weird to say)

9 St. Louis at San Francisco 25
San-Fran will have a classic defensive performance against the offensively challenged Rams.  The difference between an elite D and an up and coming, young D will be clearly illustrated.

17 Houston at Chicago 16
This is gonna be an awesome Sunday night game.  Two 7-1 juggernauts going head to head in Chi town will provide a low-scoring, defensive minded affair.  When push comes to shove, I trust Schaub over Cutler.  I am JACKED UP for this one.

13 Kansas City at Pittsburgh 34
Pitt hasn't lost at home yet and the Chiefs are straight up AWFUL.  Matt Cassel on the road against the Steelers D?  Sign me up! I'm excited about my waiver-wire pickup of Steelers D this week in fantasy...

Byes: Cleveland, Washington, Green Bay, Arizona

Last Week: 10-4
Season: 79-53

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Week 9 Predictions

13 Kansas City at San Diego 23
I really don't like either of these teams, but when push comes to shove I'll take Philip Rivers at home against Matt Cassel.  This is a terrible thursday night game; both of these squads are mediocre.

38 Denver at Cincinnati 13
Denver has won their last two games scoring 35 and 34 points, respectively, while Cincinnati is reeling losing its last 3 contests.  I expect these trends to continue as I project Peyton Manning to throw all over Cincinnati's 25th rank D in terms of points per game allowed.

24 Baltimore at Cleveland 20
People seem to be counting out the Ravens as a contender this year, especially after the injuries to Ladarius Webb and Ray Lewis.  Their offense was anemic two weeks ago against Houston as Joe Flacco struggled on the road and Ray Rice only ran 9 times. However, they are still 5-2 and in sole possession of 1st in the division.  Many are going with a Browns upset at home, but I'm sticking with a Ravens eek-it-out type of win on the road (similar to the last time these two teams met, on a thursday night in September).  Expect Ray Rice to get the rock early and often.

9 Arizona at Green Bay 31
Arizona has lost 4 straight now and Green Bay has won 3 straight.  This is a simple case of two teams headed in completely different directions.  Green Bay wins in a blowout as Arizona can not muster any offense without a run game and John Skelton at the helm.

30 Chicago at Tennessee 3
The Bears are coming off a 1 point win over the 1-6 Panthers and the Titans are coming off an overtime loss against the 4-3 Colts.  I think Chris Johnson reverts back to his classic 14 carries for 24 yards ways (maybe even less yards than that) as the Bears D completely shuts down the Titans.  Look for the Bears D to score 1 or 2 defensive touchdowns as usual.  

10 Miami at Indianapolis 13
Two 4-3 teams with playoff aspirations clash in Indy this week.  I'll take Andrew Luck at home over Tannehill or Matt Moore.  I foresee a wild card spot in Indy's future this year as Andrew Luck is as good as advertised.

31 Carolina at Washington 41
Cam Newton vs Robert Griffin 111.  This game is a fans dream.  Both teams will put up tons of offense in the nations capital, but Carolina's losing ways will continue as RG111 brings his team to 4-5.

16 Detroit at Jacksonville 19
I'm taking the upset pick of the Jags at home.  I think both teams stink but I like Gabbert to have a decent game getting his squad their 2nd win of the year.  Matthew Stafford will confuse many by struggling against the Jags one week after a 352 yard, 3 TD performance against Seattle's staunch D.

7 Buffalo at Houston 26
Great elimination pool pick game here with the Texans home against the Jekyll and Hyde Bills.  Foster will run amuck and Schaub will throw a couple TD in a Texan blowout.  

20 Tampa Bay at Oakland 17
Doug Martin put on a show last week in Minnesota in what was his coming out party to the league.  Josh Freeman gets another win on the road in Oakland bringing Tampa's record to 500.

7 Minnesota at Seattle 20
After a game in which Seattle gave up 28 points, look for them to rebound defensively at home against a struggling Vikings offense.  Christian Ponder has looked like his previous rookie self the past 2 weeks and Adrian Peterson will not find much running room with the Seahawks stuffing the box.  Seattle's elite D returns to form with a win at CenturyLink Field.

16 Pittsburgh at NY Giants 31
Coming off a big win at home against the Skins, I expect Pittsburgh to struggle on the road against the G-Men.  The Giants continue to reel off wins taking their 5th straight.

28 Dallas at Atlanta 17
In my upset special of the week, I have the Cowboys going in the Georgia Dome and taking down the Falcons by double digits.  The Falcons are the only undefeated team left at 7-0, however, I can name a bunch of teams I think are better than them in a vacuum (49ers, Bears, Giants, Texans).  They are not as good as their record indicates and will trip up big-time to the struggling Cowboys.  The key to this game will be if the Cowboys can get off to an early lead.  I like Romo to threw a couple early TD.  Also key in this game will be if DeMarco Murray plays or not (currently questionable).  Regardless, I like the Boys this week, but I don't think Jason Witten snags 18 catches again.  Michael Turner will not be able to run at all over Dallas' solid D forcing Matty Ice to sling it around.  Dallas has a sneaky good D this year even without MLB Sean Lee.

17 Philadelphia at New Orleans 26
It's only a matter of time before Andy Reid gets the boot; he's a terrible coach.  When Vick and crew only muster a measly 17 spot against a New Orleans Saints defense that is giving up 30.9 points per game (30th in the league), speculation will be on the Eagles QB decision and coaching debacle.  Reid said today Vick will be his starter but will see what he says after the Eagles drop this one.  Who Dat nation improves to 3-5 although they aren't going anywhere this year either.

Byes: St. Louis, NY Jets, New England, San Francisco

Last Week: 10-4
Season: 69-49

Release the Hounds (start em)

QB- Cam Newton- going up against the 29th fantasy D v QB, Cam will have a field day.  Start with confidence regardless of his past performance this year
Projection: 303 yds, 2 TD, INT, 60 rush yds, TD... 30 points
RB- Michael Bush- for a deeper league, look for Bush to get back to being involved in the offense.  I expect the Bears to be up big meaning a lot of running in the 2nd half.  Maybe he'll vulture a TD or 2.                    
Projection: 12 carries, 50 yds, TD... 11 points
WR- Denarius Moore.. he isn't getting much attention but he has reached paydirt 4 of the past 5 weeks. Going against a Buccaneer D that is 30th against WR, look for a long TD for Denarius
Projection: 4 rec, 104 yds, TD... 16 points
TE- Greg Olsen... Washington is 31st against TE and I expect this one to be a slugfest.  Look for Olsen to find the endzone.
Projection: 6 rec, 73 yds, TD... 13 points
D/ST- GB D/ST...  Arizona has allowed double digits to defenses in their last 5 games and the Packers have scored positive numbers all year...
Projection: 9 points allowed, 7 sacks, 2 INT... 15 points

Ride the Pine (sit em)

QB- Andy Dalton- Broncos D will be applying the pressure all day and he's coming off a 6 pt dud vs pitt.
Projection: 247 yds, TD, 2 INT... 9 points
RB- C.J Spiller- he's only been averaging 12 carries the past 2 weeks and against Houston's D, that's not going to lead to many points
Projection: 10 carries, 41 yds... 4 points
WR- Julio Jones- Dallas is the 7th best D against WR... Also, Julio/Roddy have been switching off performing every other week.  In every week, one has had double digits points and one hasn't.  Last week, it was Julio who copped 123 yards and a score.  It's Rowdy Roddy's turn to explode this week.
Projection: 3 rec, 31 yds... 3 points
TE- Jimmy Graham- Philly locks down TE (5th against TE) so look for Brees to attack vertically/outside the numbers
Projection: 6 rec, 52 yds... 5 points
D/ST- ARI D/ST- They are 5th in points but do not be fooled, Rodgers will go to town on Sunday.
Projection: 31 points allowed, 3 sacks... -1 points

Chinese word of the day: 厨房 (Chúfáng) definition: kitchen
source:  Kimi Shi kimi shi fb

Thursday, October 25, 2012

Week 8 Predictions

16 Tampa Bay at Minnesota 20
Minnesota is just a better team.  Despite Christian Ponder's 2 pick, 58 yd performance against Arizona, the Vikings secured their 5th victory.  If they can win with that showing from Ponder, imagine how they'll do when Ponder goes up against the cup-cake Tampa Bay D.  The Cashier (AP) will run down the Bucs' throat setting up the pass for Ponder to Harvin against Tampa's atrocious secondary (31st in passing yds/game).  This thursday night game will be Minny's coming out party; they will show they are not a fluke.

14 Carolina at Chicago 23 
This must-win affair for Carolina could not have come against a worse team.  Cam Newton will go on the road to Chicago to face the #1 defense this year.  Chicago's D will continue to dominate as the Panthers will lose their 1st game since the firing of GM Marty Hurney.

16 San Diego at Cleveland 17
I was debating between a San Diego blowout victory or a Cleveland win by the skin of their teeth.  I decided on the latter upon realizing I have zero trust in Norv and Rivers.  Although the Browns only have 1 win, Brandon Weeden has looked real solid recently as he has developed chemistry with young wideout Josh Gordon.  I predict a Browns victory that lays the ground work for the eventual firing of Norv later this year.   

25 Seattle at Detroit 20
Matthew Stafford looked AWFUL last week.  I think the Lions are settling into their role as a 6-10 team this year, they have no run game and defenses are scheming against Calvin Johnson (only 3 catches last week).  Lynch runs all over Detroit and Russ Wilson doesn't turn the ball over leading to a Seahawk win on the road.

24 New England at St. Louis 21
The consensus here is that the Pats (4-3) are going to take control of the division with a blow-out victory overseas (game being playing in England) against the 3-4 Rams.  There is a problem with this logic, however.  The Pats looked bad last week, that was an ugly win vs the Jets.  The Rams D is legit, they have a solid pass-rush with Robert Quinn and Chris Long, have a field general in James Laurinaitis, and have two solid cornerbacks in Cortland Finnegan and rookie Janoris Jenkins.  I think the Rams give the Pats some trouble this week.  However, I can't see the Pats losing this one.  I think they win in an ugly-fashion in the UK.

17 Miami at NY Jets 20
Of course I'm going with the Jets home against Miami.  During these teams first meeting of the year, Miami dominated most of the game but the Jets came away with an overtime victory.  I think the Jets make a concerted effort to stop Reggie Bush (61 first half rush yards last time before leaving due to injury) forcing the rookie Tannehill to win the game.  I actually think the Dolphins are a decent team but I like the Jets to improve to 500.

26 Atlanta at Philadelphia 13
Andy Reid is 13-0 all-time coming off byes.  I think that comes to an end on sunday at home against the undefeated Falcons.  The Eagles have been a mess this year and I don't think their ineptitude can be solved by the bye.  I like Matty Ice and the boys to improve to 7-0.

31 Washington at Pittsburgh 28
I'm calling a classic at Heinz, an explosion of offense culminating in a victory for RG3 and his skins.  Coming off a disappointing defeat in New York (the defense lost them the game), RG3 will come out running and throwing like usual en route to a win in Pittsburgh.

13 Jacksonville at Green Bay 24 
This is a gimme game.  A great pick for an elimination pool.  Green Bay will take this one without any problems.  Rodgers and the Pack are back and MJD is out.  The Jags have 83 first downs this season (over 20 less than anyone else)  Saying their offense is anemic is an overstatement.  

33 Indianapolis at Tennessee 23
I know the Titans are 3-4 but I really think they are a door-matt type squad.  Andrew Luck will carve up this D and get another win for Coach Pagano.  I think the Colts are a sneaky contender this year, I mean, the AFC needs to field 2 wild card teams doesn't it?

30 Oakland at Kansas City 13
Brady Quinn is starting for Kansas City.  I like going against Brady Quinn 

34 NY Giants at Dallas 17
In Week 1, the Giants lost at home against Dallas as DeMarco Murray trounched the G-Men's D to the tune of 131 yards on the ground.  Murray is out this week; the Cowboys will be looking to attack via the air but I just have no trust in Tony Romo.  Eli takes the G-Men to 6-2.

17 New Orleans at Denver 31 
I really don't think the Saints are any good this year.  Their defense is porous; it will be carved up like a jack o'lantern on october 31st.  Peyton Manning is about to put on a show continuing his magic from the 2nd half vs San Diego.

21 San Francisco at Arizona 3
Arizona started the year 4-0.  They turned experts heads (who, for the most part, had them as a door-matt) with their incredible D especially in their wins over New England and Philly.  But after a thursday night football loss against St. Louis, they haven't been the same.  Their O-line was exposed as one of the worst in football and now the kinda-competent Kevin Kolb is injured, replaced by the not-so competent John Skelton.  San Fran is gonna shut this offense down just like they shut down Buffalo, the Jets and Seattle.  After their hot start, I could see Arizona falling to 4-6, playing Green Bay and Atlanta on the road after this contest.  They'll finish under 500.

Byes: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Houston

Last Week: 7-6
Season: 59-45

Fantasy Football: Release the Hounds (start em) , Ride the Pine (sit em) starting next week

Chinese word of the day: 面条 (Mian) definition: noodle
source: Kimi Shi

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Week 7 Predictions

7 Seattle at San Francisco 16 
Peter Carrol's squad thinks they're hot shit right now after beating Tom Brady, Tony Romo and Aaron Rodgers* at home so far this year.  Seattle CB Richard Sherman said after the win over New England that no great ball-club is 3-3, or average.  It's ironic because Sherman goes onto brag about how good Seattle is when they should be 3-3 if it wasn't for the incompetence of high school referree/Bank of America employee/NFL official Lance Easley (his name alone exudes incompetence).  Check out the pic of Sherman smack talking Brady that the CB put on twitter (great caption) U MAD BRO.  Basically, I think Sherman and coach Carroll are way too happy to be 4-2 right now and their destined for a reality-check against a San Francisco D that is 2nd v the pass.  Wilson will throw a pick or 2 and San-Fran will show why they are the class of the NFC West.

21 Tennessee at Buffalo 27
Buffalo is one of the strangest teams in the NFL... in their 3 wins, they have no given up 20 points or more but in their 3 losses, they've given up an average of 48.3 points per game. I predict the good Bills will show up on Sunday against a Titans D coming off a high after defeating Pittsburgh.  The Titans defensive is absolutely dreadful; Fitzpatrick/Spiller will shred it.  Bills win at home.

24 Washington at NY Giants 27
The Giants will take care of business at home against an up and coming Redskins team.  I predict a close one though, a classic down-to-the-last-play NFC East affair but in the end I like Eli to get the job done.

24 New Orleans at Tampa Bay 26
The Saints defense is dreadful  and I see them going no where this season.  Tampa Bay is 2-3 but their point differential is + 18.  They have been losing close games, but I say that trend ends this week as Josh Freeman orchestrates a 4th quarter drive to beat New Orleans.

17 Baltimore at Houston 27
Houston's loss of MLB Brian Cushing for the year is a big blow, but the Ravens loses of CB Ladarius Webb and living-legend MLB Ray Lewis hurt even more.  Lewis is the backbone of the team; his inspirational speeches can make the manliest of men break down in tears.  Watch the Lewish speech that opens Madden 13 Madden Speech or this random speech he gave to players of his alma mata, the U speech to the U.  Dude is the best motivational speaker in the league and the Ravens will struggle defensively without him (especially against Arian Foster who will be hungry after a 29 yd performance v Green Bay).  I also think Baltimore has been winning games they shouldn't be winning (beat NE by 1 bc of bad field goal call, barely scraped by the Browns and Chiefs, beat Dallas last week bc of poor dallas clock management/dez bryant dropped 2 pc).  Houston had 1 bad game; they are still elite and they will win this one.

27 Dallas at Carolina 34
Cam Newton will have 1 week where he goes bizerk (he hasn't eclipsed 350 total yards passing/running) and think it comes off a bye, at home, v a team that can't finish games.  I expect a high scoring affair as Carolina's D is abysmal, but I do not think Romo will finish the job.  I can't see Cam's team dropping to 1-5; I like the Panthers in a close one.

24 Green Bay at St. Louis 10
Rodgers is determined to show the NFL world that the Packers are still elite.  He threw for 6 TD at Houston last week and now he has another challenge against a sneaky-good Rams D (5th best D in terms of total points allowed).  I think Rodgers takes care of business ensuring the Pack do not drop below 500

6 Arizona at Minnesota 31
two unexpected 4-2 teams go head to head.. If Minnesota goes ahead early this game is over as Arizona has no offense.  This will either be a defensive struggle or a Minnesota blowout.  I'm going with the latter.  I also have a policy of going against absolutely atrocious QB on the road (John Skelton) and it worked last week going against Brady Quinn at Tampa Bay.

29 Cleveland at Indianapolis 13
With virtually no threat on the ground (Donald Brown out and Vick Ballard averaging 2.3 yds/carry this year) Indy's attack will be all air against the Browns, who just got back their Pro-Bowl shutdown CB Joe Haden back.  AJ Green torched Haden for 7 catches, 135 yds and 2 scores last week, but this week I think Haden shuts down Reggie Wayne.  Luck will be out of luck this week as Trent Richardson runs all over the Colts paltry run D (29th in rush yards/game)

16 Jacksonville at Oakland 34
The consensus among NFL heads is that Oakland sucks, but they had a positive showing last week off a bye in Atlanta.  Home against Blaine Gabbert's Jags, I foresee a blowout in Oakland.  Oakland will run all over the Jags and once they go up, Gabbert will not be able to bring Jacksonville back due to the fact that he sucks. (29th in passer rating).  The only thing Gabbert has going for him is his sick hairdoo.  He's terrible.

14 NY Jets at New England 17
I really wanted to pick the Jets here but I couldn't.  Brady/Belichick will be pissed after pissing away the game at Seattle.  I do think it will be a low scoring affair as Jets safeties can cover Gronk/Hernandez and Cromartie can shut down Welker.  I predict Brady will struggle but ultimately they will come out with the W, to Rex Ryan's dismay.  What sucks is that the Jets will probably lose a close one leaving hope that Sanchez can still be the franchise QB (he can't)

20 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati 22
Cincy was posied to break out after starting off hot at 3-1 looking forward to cup-cake matchups against the Dolphins at home and Cleveland on the road.  Of course, with the parody in the AFC this year, they lost both of these matchups and are now 2 games behind the Ravents at 3-3.  In fact, only 2 AFC teams are above 500 (BAL and HOU at 5-1) making it difficult to tell who is elite, good, mediocre, bad, awful and god-awful in the AFC.  I'm leaning towards Cincy coming together and becoming a contender and I'm not sold on Pit.  I'll take Cincy with Shaun Suisham missing a possible game-winning FG for Pit

14 Detroit at Chicago 10
In a monday night shocker; I have Stafford and crew taking down the ferocious Bears D.  Jay Cutler is poised for a break-down as people are too high on Da Bears.  I think the Bears D plays another great one, but Cutler has an erratic game ending in a game-changer pick 6.  I also would like to take the over (-12.5) on how many gushy-praising comments Jon Gruden makes on the Chicago pass rush.  Dude called JJ Watt a hall of fame candidate last week in Houston.  Watt is a beast but he is 23...

Last Week: 7-7
Season: 52-39

Chinese word of the day: 饼干 (Bing Gan) definition: cookie
(not to be confused with 丙肝 which translates to Hepatitis C)
source: Kan T. (Kevin) there will be no facebook link as my friend request remains pending

Monday, October 15, 2012

Ni Hao

     I have decided to start a football blog because, simply put, I am obsessed with the NFL.  Every week I predict the scores of the games on my nifty yellow legal pad and keep track of how many games I get right and wrong.  After going 11-3 last week and correctly predicting the Colts, playing for their Leukemia stricken and much revered coach Chuck Pagano, to defeat Green Bay, I realized that my predictions needed to be given to the masses.  I also wanted a forum where I could give my thoughts on all things NFL (and fantasy of course).  Furthermore, my blog will serve to teach a limited amount of chinese (cantonese not mandarin for those who were wondering) to my audience as many of my college floormates hail from the land of the red, sesame chicken and mass-produced items.  I will be posting weekly predictions as well as random and sporadic lists and analysis on the league. 

I will be posting Week 7 predictions in the next couple of days as well as a comprehensive list of the top 32 NFL qb's ranked (with tiers)

To hold my readers over till then, I would like to share a concept I developed yesterday while watching the cowboys/ravens game (and I subsequently sent an email of my concept to the great Bill Simmons)

While watching the game I realized that when Tony Romo (unfortunately my starting fantasy QB) dropped back to pass, I was NOT rooting for him to complete a pass.  I did not hope for a TD.  I did not hope for a big gain to Dez Bryant (my usual flex starter).  I did not hope for anything positive.  In fact, I found myself hoping he would NOT throw an interception.  I just didn't want him to screw up and lose me points.  This is a new level in fantasy lowness and I have dubbed it the
Romo Zone of fantasy lowness.  Here are the parameters
1) he has to be playing absolutely dreadful (Romo was 28th in fantasy points among QB)
2) you have to be too afraid to bench him (because of his past success in fantasy, I was nervous that if I bench him he will return to form)
3) you have to root for him NOT to screw up rather than to succeed (caught myself doing this numerous times including a drop back on 3rd and goal)

Thank God I have Arian Foster... (and Roddy White... and AJ Green)

Chinese word of the day: Ni Hao definition: Hello
source: Kimi Shi (