Week 15 Predictions

I've been doing pretty well with the picks so far this year, but 1 thing I've been lacking is a right-on-the-money pick where I correctly hit the score on both ends.  I've been so close recently... 3 weeks ago, I had SF 30-21 over NO; the score was 31-21 SF.  2 weeks ago, I had DEN 31-24 over TB; the score was 31-23 DEN. This week, I had NYJ 17-9 over JAC; the score was 17-10 NYJ.  1 point off in a game 3 weeks in a row.

I've also had a bunch of other close calls in the past 3 weeks (Mia/Sea 19-16; score was 24-21 Mia, Cle/Pit 23-17; score was 20-14 Cle, Jac/Ten 21-20; score was 24-19 Jac, Chi/Min 28-13; score was 28-10 Chi, Sf/Mia 27-10; score was 27-13 Sf, Ind/Ten 23-19; score was 27-23 Ind, and Ne/Hou 41-17; score was 42-14 Ne).

I'm hoping this week I can hit one on the head... to the picks...

31 Cincinnati at Philadelphia 17
I was between a double-digit Cincy win or an Eagle win by the skin of their teeth.  This is a very similar dilemma I had in picking CLE @ SD in week 8.  That week, I went with a Cleveland win by 1 and I nailed it (they won 7-6; I predicted 17-16).  This week, I'm going with the double-digit win.  A.J Green gets back on track with a 100 yds and a score.

24 NY Giants at Atlanta 26
The Falcons struggled on the road in New York last year losing in the playoffs 24-2 to the G-Men.  After getting of to an early 2-0 lead via a safety, Atlanta was embarrassed by the Giants.  This playoff debacle only added to the critics voice that the Falcons can't win big games.  Matt Ryan has something to prove; he will have a big game at home in the dome.  With 6 minutes to go in the game, Matt Bryant will hit a 53 yd fg to put Atl down 24-23.  After a Giants drive that ends in a punt, Ryan will drive his team down the field leading to a Bryant 46 yarder as time expires.  Huge win for Atlanta and a huge loss for the Giants who enter this game only 1 game ahead in the NFC East.

17 Minnesota at St. Louis 23
Two very surprising teams going head to head here.  Before the season, I thought Minny was a doormat and St. Louis was a frisky 5 or 6 win team.  I did not take into account that Adrian Peterson was super-human and would recover from his injury this quickly and effectively.  Final statline: Adrian Peterson 29 carries, 171 yds, TD but the Rams get the win as Christian Ponder mails in another dud performance.

7 Jacksonville at Miami 17
Chad Henne and Montell Ernest (shares my middle name) Owens take their talents to South Beach  Although the relatively unknown running back scampered for 91 and a score last week, I think the solid Dolphins rush D stifles the former Maine Black Bear.  Pretty boring game here; I don't think the Jags ruin their chance at the #1 pick in Miami.

14 Green Bay at Chicago 20
Pack are on the upswing; Bears are free-falling.  With a win on Sunday, the Packers would clinch the NFC North, but I'm predicting a bit of a suprise.  With their backs against the wall, the Bears will respond with a fantastic defensive performance.  Too many people are going for GB right now; it just makes sense that Chicago will come back with a win.

17 Washington at Cleveland 19
Kirk Cousins is starting so I'm changing this prediction to a Browns win.  The Browns are on a frisky 3 game win streak but the Redskins need this one to stay in the playoff hunt.  Since RG3 can't go, I think the Browns will best the skins improving to 6-8.  This Cleveland 4 game win streak would not be a true reflection of the Browns, however.  They would have beat a Skins team without Griffin, Kansas City (awful), Oakland (also awful) and a Steeler team led by Charlie Batch (still awful).

20 Denver at Baltimore 24
Denver is 0-3 against elite teams this year (their best wins came vs PIT and @ CIN).  I expect the trend to continue as the Ravens get a win with Ray Lewis back on the field.  Lewis will inspire Baltimore with his play.  I predict Denver ends up with the #3 seed and the Ravens end up with the #4 though as Baltimore will lose 1 or 2 of their last 2 games and Denver faces CLE and KC at home (two easy wins for Peyton).

15 Indianapolis at Houston 34
The Texans get themselves back into the Superbowl conversation with a blow-out win vs division rival Indianapolis.  Up 31-7 in the mid 4th, Luck throws a TD and runs it in for the 2 PC.  Houston tacks on a fg as Schaub and crew roll to their 12th win.  A big day for Foster: 25 rush, 133 yds, 2 TD

30 Tampa Bay at New Orleans 27
The Muscle Hamster goes crazy in New Orleans leading Tampa Bay back to 500.  Brees and the Saints are out of the playoff hunt; I see them losing 2 of their last 3 ending at 6-10.

36 Detroit at Arizona 14
The Lions have played some good games in the past few weeks but they have been unable to finish the job.  They've lost 5 straight but Arizona has lost 9 straight.  The Cards mailed in one of the most pathetic performances in NFL history last week losing 58-0 to a superior Seahawks squad.  When asked who the starting quarterback will be in week 15, coach Ken Whisenhunt jokingly asked the reporter if he could suit up.

13 Carolina at San Diego 16
Coming off a 287 passing yd, 116 rush yd and 3 total TD afternoon, Cam is posied for a bad game on the road against an underrated Charger D.  It's also worth mentioning that I am in the semi-finals of my fantasy league and my opponent has Cam Newton starting this week.  I'm feeling a shaky game on both sides with the Chargers escaping by 3.

20 Seattle at Buffalo 21
After a 58-0 bashing of the lowly Cardinals, I expect Seattle to fly cross country to Buffalo and be upset.  The Seahawks will be up 20-14 early in the 4th quarter.  They will have controlled most of the game but Fitzpatrick will mount a game-winning drive in the final few minutes.  This performance may be enough to keep his job next year.  If not, I'm sure the Harvard alum could find a nice backup gig for next year.  As for the Seahawks, they would drop to 8-6 with this loss but I still think they will make the playoffs.

34 Pittsburgh at Dallas 27
At home against the woeful Chargers, Pitt got beat bad; they were down 27-3 at one point.  People expected Big Ben to cruise to victory upon returning from injury, but he played like someone who had been out of action for a few weeks.  I think Roethlisberger bounces back big-time in Dallas as Pitt needs this one to keep pace with the Bengals.  For the Cowboys, this loss would effectively end their season causing Dez Bryant to get the hand surgery he really needs.  He is playing through the injury because Dallas has a chance at the playoffs.  I think the 'boys get off to an early lead, end the first half up 20-10, but Romo throws a couple picks in the second half to seal the teams fate.  This will be a fun one to watch.

21 Kansas City at Oakland 24
To quote the great Lil Wayne, "I said Yuck."  My exact response upon seeing this game on the NFL agenda this week.  These teams have a combined 5 wins.  Atlanta has more double the amount of wins on their own and people don't even believe in them.  Although Brady Quinn has shown to be at least an above-average human being, he hasn't shown that he can be a top 40 QB in this league.  That was not a typo.  Carson Palmer, on the other hand, hasn't won a game since October 28th.  Since Halloween, the Raiders have been abysmal giving up at least 34 points in 4 of their 6 losses.  (20 and 26 points allowed, respectively, in other 2 losses).  I'm predicting an overtime affair that ends in Sebastian Janikowski nailing a 56 yarder.

24 San Francisco at New England 28
New England did exactly what I thought they would last week; they pounced on the previously one loss Texans.  Now, Colin Kaepernick and the niners come to town in round 2 of the Pats deathly home-stand.  I expect a close one but in the end I trust Brady over the young Kaepernick.  I predict a couple mistakes down the stretch by the inexperienced niners QB costs em.

20 NY Jets at Tennessee 10
And on Monday Night Football we have the much-worse-than-their-record-indicates 6-7 Jets in Nashville to face the just-as-bad-as-their-record-indicates 4-9 Titans.  I'm picking the Jets for a few reasons...
1) I'm a Jet fan and I'm rooting for them as they still have a shot at the playoffs.  Somehow.
2) The Titans seem like such a classic 4-12 team so they will probably lose their last 3
3) I want to see how John Gruden will go about effusively praising the Jets.  If the Jets have the game locked up, Gruden will start talking about how they're 7-7 and only 1 game back in the playoff hunt.  He will feel the dire need to effusively praise someone on the Jets and I would love see how it plays out when he musters the words "Sanchez" and "winner" in the same sentence.  Will Mike Tirico get fed up and blow up? Will Gruden, out of disgust for himself. quit on the spot once he realizes he's praising Mark Sanchez?  Will he then accept a head coaching job at a low D1 school because he already rejected the Tennessee job and had nowhere else to go? So many questions.

Last Week: 11-5
Season: 134-73-1