Will the Next Danny Green Please Stand Up?

Let’s play a little game, shall we? Raise your hand if you thought taking Danny Green at pick 46 in the 2009 NBA Draft was a steal. Now keep your hand raised if you knew that the Cleveland Cavaliers and not the San Antonio Fightin’ Popovichs Spurs selected him. Leave your hand up if you saw Green’s Finals outburst coming even after the San Antonio Angry Scowls Spurs RELEASED HIM SIX DAYS AFTER SIGING HIM. Of course you did. You saw him nailing three after three while playing for the Reno Bighorns and said to yourself, “Gee, this guy could definitely come close to winning the NBA Finals MVP in a few years” Alas, the Spurs agreed with you and immediately signed him and made him a starter. O wait, what’s that? They assigned him to the D-League? I bet you still saw this coming. Right? Right? Now finally, hold your hand high if you knew that he would be the single biggest difference maker against the Miami Heat in the Finals. If your hand is still up, you are either a liar or a basketball savant. But probably a liar.

The point of this activity was that nobody saw this coming. And since no one saw it coming, it is theoretically possible that other Danny Green's are lying around somewhere in the D-League or outside of this year's Draft Lottery, patiently waiting for their opportunity. Every team in the NBA had their chance at Danny Green and all of them, sans the Spurs, passed it up.  In the spirit of Danny Green, I am looking for players who are afterthoughts, yet who I believe have a useful skillset that when paired with the right coach and/or the right system could be the #MagnaCartaHolyGrail commercial of rotational players. This list is ordered from my least favorite player to my favorite player. 

10. Mike Rosario (6-2, SG, Florida, 22 Years Old, Draft Eligible) - The former McDonalds All American will probably not get drafted on June 27^th, but not because of a lack of prodution. While at Rutgers, Rosario had back to back seasons in which he averaged over 16 points per game. After transferring to Florida, Rosario’s scoring dipped considerably and his draft stock suffered a similar fate. While I am extremely concerned about his size (6-2 is very small for a player who lacks PG ability) and ability to defend bigger players, I still see positives that would cause me to give Rosario a flyer. He has the ability to be a knockdown shooter from deep, he can put the ball on the deck, and his team first approach in going from the star at Rutgers to the 3^rd or 4^th option at Gainesville is encouraging. Danny Green was one of the best players at UNC and still managed to get overlooked during the draft process because he was "one-dimensional" and had "limited upside". Rosario was a high-school stud who played in 2 different major conferences and is getting bypassed right now for analogous reasons. Although I don’t think it’s likely that Rosario even sniffs an NBA bench this year, I am higher on him than most.

9. Travis Leslie (6-4, SG, Georgia, 23 Years Old, D-League) - Pick 47 in the 2011 NBA Draft, Travis Leslie, has always been a freak athlete with great quickness and a 40.5 inch vertical leap. Defensively, Leslie’s 6-10 wingspan and quick feet make him a pest, as evidenced by his 1.7 steals per game in the D-League. With insane athleticism and the ability to attack the rim, all that was missing from Leslie’s offensive game was a jump shot. This season, Leslie was stuck playing for the Santa Cruz Warriors but made the most of it. He used this time to refine his jumper and shot 36% for the season and 44% in the D-League Finals from deep. He even won All-Star Game MVP this year. Despite his accomplishments the Clippers cut him before their series against Memphis. Expect Leslie, who was overlooked as a star player in the SEC, to catch on with a team in the Summer League and earn a roster spot.

8. Carrick Felix (6-6, SG, Arizona State, 22 Years Old, Draft Eligible) – After missing math class and getting his admission denied from Duke University (True Story), Felix enjoyed a prolific career at ASU most recently averaging over 14 points, 8 rebounds, 1 steal, and 1 block per game. Like Leslie, Felix is a freak athlete but unlike Leslie, Felix was supposed to make his presence felt as a defense stopper. Fortunately for Sun Devil fans (and his draft stock), Felix grasped offense quicker than expected. Currently, Felix's offensive game revolves mostly around off-ball movement and relying on other people to create his shot for him (Ahem, Danny Green anyone?). While Felix is nowhere near the shooter Green is, Felix’s form is solid, will definitely improve over time, and is already formidable enough to garner the respect of opposing head coaches. Where Felix really excels is in transition and on the offensive glass, being able to finish with thunderous dunks and through contact. From day one Felix is an intriguing DTA player (Defense, Threes, Athleticism) and could potentially be a steal down the line. Even though he played in the PAC-12, and got the attention of Coach K, he has flown under the radar. Expect him to go in the mid-to-late 2^nd round.

7. Livio Jean-Charles (6-9, SF/PF, French Guiana, 19 Years Old, Draft Eligible) – What, you didn’t think I’d go Euro on you? Well you were mistaken. I first heard of Jean-Charles after he thoroughly dominated the USA Junior Select Team and I decided to do some more research. Charles has some nice bounce to his step, a 7ft 2.5 inch wingspan, runs the floor like a French Gazelle, (Do they make those?) and doesn’t play like your stereotypical European big-man. As of today, the touch on Charles’ mid-range shot is “Charmin Ultra Soft” soft.  I think that his value in the NBA is as a player who can guard both forward positions and stretch the court. There's a god chance that Charles will add a respectable 3 point shoot to suplement his good shot blocking, pick-and-roll talents, and defensive versatility. And when you really think about it, how many of players with that skill-set exist in today’s NBA? 10? 15? I think Charles could be very valuable after a few more years overseas to season and fine-tune his game, Jean-Charles can be one of the more unique role players in the NBA and I Expect him to go in mid-to-late round 2.

6. Tony Snell (6-7, SF, New Mexico, 21 Years Old, Draft Eligible) - Thanks in large part to the bracket-busting, ass-kicking Harvard handed them in the Tourney this year, Snell’s name means nothing to your average Basketball fan. He is definitely not the athlete that Felix or Leslie is, but he does have a 7ft wingspan and above average agility. Even though his weight is a problem (only 200 pounds, eat a Cheeseburger!) Snell has shown the determination to improve his body and the results have shown during his tenure as a Lobo. Where the Green comparison arises (Even though he looks a lot more like Kawhi Leonard) in Snell is his innate ability to run off of screens, dribble handoffs, off-ball cuts, etc. to find himself space behind the arc. There, he shot nearly 40% from distance, and displayed some nifty one dribble pull-ups, two dribble pull-ups and a solid head-fake to get his defenders in the air. So why did an athletic 6-7 player with a money jump shot not dominate the Mountain West? He lacks a “you can’t guard me and we both know it” mentality. I think that when he finds his niche in an NBA offense Snell is going to be a dynamite role player in the DTA mold and I would even draft him late in Round 1. However, I expect him to go in early round 2.

5. DeAndre Liggins (6-6, SG/SF, Kentucky, 25 Years Old, D-League) - Currently a hostage member of the Oklahoma City Thunder/Tulsa 66ers Liggins hasn’t gotten a chance to show what he can do yet. In the D-League Liggins is shooting an absurd 46% from deep and is probably the best perimeter on-ball defender in the league. After getting selected by the Orlando Magic with the 53^rd pick in the 2011 Draft, he was promptly released and signed by the Thunder. Liggins has only gotten one real chance to show what he is capable of and that came on January 13^th of this season against the Blazers. Liggins went three for three from deep, had 11 points, chipped in nine rebounds, and held Nicolas Batum to 6 of 17 shooting. But Liggins TOTALLY doesn’t deserve a chance to prove himself (Hint: Sarcasm). Liggins was overlooked because he was a role player on that loaded team at Kentucky (isin't every Kentucky team loaded? Seem's pretty redundant to me, like saying ATM Machine) and has been overlooked ever since. I don’t know if he will ever get a chance to show that he can play, but if he does I think he can have a Danny Green-esque rise from fringe NBA player to locked-in rotational player.

4. Josh “Showtime” Selby (6-2, PG/SG, Kansas, 22 Years Old, D-League/Free Agent) - Selby was a high-school phenom. Back in 2010, ESPN ranked him 5^th in the country, Rivals ranked him 1st and many sites had him above Kyrie Irving and Brandon Knight. Clearly, this is where the comparisons between Selby, Knight, and Irving stop, but it does display how much jaw dropping raw talent Selby possesses. Selby was taken at pick 49 by the Grizzlies in 2011 but failed to earn legitimate playing time. Despite earning Summer League co-MVP honors with Damien Lillard, Selby was traded as filler in a deal to the Cavs, sent to the D-League, and released. Over his D-League Career Selby has dropped 17 PPG, 5 RPG, 4 APG, and 1 SPG and displayed that he outclasses nearly every PG he faces night-in and night-out. Selby has spent his time in the pros polishing his shooting and defense, two much needed areas of improvement. On the whole, Selby is not like Danny Green on the basketball court in terms of skill-set and responisibilites. Yet, I think he could be much like Danny Green in terms of impact to a team. I would love to see Selby get a shot as a change-of-pace guard off of the bench. He can score in bunches and make the exciting types of plays that swing momentum. Ultimately, he is a very cheap free agent who is worth a shot for teams like Indiana and New York who need some youthful energy in the back-court.

3. Allen Crabbe (6-6, SG, California, 21 Years Old, Draft Eligible) - My love for Allen Crabbe has already been well documented on this site dating way back to my March Madness Preview and I stand by it. When you consider his 6ft 11.5 inch wingspan, productive college career against good competition, great reputation, and promising skill-set, it is no surprise that he is a hot commodity. Crabbe may not be a great athlete but that’s alright, after all, neither is Danny Green. A lot of Crabbe’s offense comes in leak out situations and coming off screens. He has an unbelievable form on his shot, and limitless range. Going from the college 3-line to the NBA's is going to be no struggle at all for him. He gets great elevation and his release is quick. He shot 44.1% on catch and shoot opportunities which is astounding considering he was the focal point of opposing teams game-plans, meaning he was usually guarded by the other team’s best defender and his shots were usually contested. If only we had some sort of stat that said how well he shot on unguarded catch-and-shoot looks... We do?! Yeah Mr. White! Yeah Science! On these looks, Crabbe shot an awesome 53.8%. The drawbacks in Crabbe’s game are his ability, or should I say inability, to dribble the ball and pass. Crabbe projects as an above average defender, and could be very good if he bulks up. Wait a second… Did I just write a scouting report on Allen Crabbe or Danny Green coming out of college? Seriously, their games are nearly mirror images of each other. I think it’s safe to say that the majority of the teams picking in the late first round are going to try to copy the Spurs (wouldn’t be the first time) and find their own Danny Green. Crabbe may be that player for somebody like the Thunder, Clippers, or Nets.

2. Glen Rice Jr (6-6, SG/SF, Georgia Tech, 22 Years Old, D-League/Draft Eligible) – No, that’s not a misprint. Rice played for the Rio Grande Valley Vipers (almost as annoying to say as the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim) last year but is still available for selection come June 27^th.  After getting kicked off of Georgia Tech, Rice was one of the last men off of the bench for the Vipers. He was even asked to wear a Derrick Rose playoff jersey to most of the games. Since he understood that his draft stock coming out of college was only slightly better than a Vietnam War Veterans’ Rice decided to not enter the draft and enter the D-League. Rice got selected in ROUND FOUR of the D-League Draft. I can’t wait till he makes an NBA roster this year and we all hear Mike Breen tell this story a thousand times followed by Jeff Van Gundy sarcastically saying “I told you so” then insulting every Ref’s family just cause he can and you know he wants to. Thanks to a few injuries, Rice got some playing time and dropped 35 points and 15 rebounds in his first start. Rice went on to take the league by storm and lead his team to the champioinship. In the finals, Rice averaged 29, 11, 4, 3 and 3. Granted it was only a two game series, but still, Rice went from a DNP to a MVP in half a season. In terms of backstories, it is easy to see how Green and Rice share an improbable journey to the pros. They were both key role players for prominent ACC schools who went on to suffer through the basketball purgatory that is the Developmental League. In terms of skill sets, they both have prototypical size, plus athleticism (Rice’s is waaaaay better) and a deadly jump shot. Well respected NBA scout Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress.com writes, “Rice has been absolutely deadly this season from the perimeter for the Vipers, making 39% of his overall attempts on the season, despite having to transition to the much further NBA 3-point line that the D-League plays with. He's deadly with his feet set and is capable of coming off screens or shooting off the dribble, showing consistent mechanics, a quick release, and deep range, sometimes making shots from a few feet beyond the NBA line even, and looking effortless when doing so.” Like Green, Rice does struggle to find his own shot off of the dribble. The one area that is the most critical in deciding if Rice and Green will ever be talked about in the same breath is defense. While Rice has all of the traits you look for in projecting defense, he has no sense of fundamentals and how to play in a team system. He constantly gets caught ball-watching and standing in the wrong spot. Conversely, Green’s greatest defensive strength is his ability to follow his coaches orders. This has been evidenced by Green forcing LeBron and Wade into foul line help and opportune double teams. Rice is the player I am most exciting to watch on this list and I expect him to go early in Round 2. Hopefully, he finds a coach and a system that suits him.

Full Disclosure: I really love Rice. I think he has the potential to be one of the best players in this draft class. I would easily take him in the 20s if I was an NBA GM.

1. Reggie Bullock (6-7, SF, UNC, 22 Years Old, Draft Eligible) - The Bullock/Green comparisons are uncanny. Same college? Check. Similar measurables? Green is one inch shorter and 10 pounds heavier, I would say check. Next, look at these stats.

	PPG	FG%	3FG%	APG	RPG	SPG
Player A	13.1	47.1	41.8	2.7	4.7	1.8
Player B	13.9	48.3	43.6	2.9	6.5	1.3

Player A is Danny Green and Player B is Reggie Bullock. There numbers are eerily similar as is the role they played under Roy Williams. Both of them were instructed to space the court, distract double teams from Tyler Hansbrough and James Michael McAdoo respectively and be one of the best perimeter defenders on the team. Neither Green nor Bullock are unbelievable athletes, have a strong mid-range game, or get to the paint with ease. Bullock’s lateral quickness is a bit of a deficiency on defense but, like Green, he executes his team’ strategy to a tee and uses his length to affect shots. Green’s surge this year is making other teams green with envy (pun not intended). Consequently, Bullock might rise to around pick 20 in the draft. Frankly, if a team views a two way player with a knockdown three stroke as the missing piece, and they can’t get Victor Oladipo, there is no better player available this draft then Reggie Bullock.

 

Finding the next Danny Green is an unenviable task. Most great shooters don’t play good defense and most good defenders don’t have a killer three point stroke. You get Tony Allen or Steve Novak, you don't get both gift-wrapped into one super-player.  Thus, finding cheap role players with both traits is nearly impossible unless you draft them and develop them. The ten players above are all guys who have the potential to do both, and given the right tutelage could be valuable pieces to a contending teams’ puzzle. Teams have been trying to copy the “Spurs Model” for years but it takes an expert scouting team and a superb relationship between management and the front office to make it work. There is not enough trust in the NBA for GMs and Coaches to take risks without getting fired. Coaches can't run exotic zones or press schemes because it goes agaisnt the grain and can quickly become the calling card for a pink-slip. On that same note, General Managers can't take risks in the Draft, Free Agency, or via trades without their head being slowly lowered too the guillotine. It is a cutthroat business. The difference between the Bobcats and the Spurs is not just superior intellect, but a superior willigness to gamble on that intellect. What it really boils down to is taking a chance on a player. Every team should look to buy second round picks and roll the dice on players with upside to fit their scheme. The risk is low and the reward is very high. And if teams don’t, it will just be more players for the Spurs to choose from and make everyone else look stupid.

DraftExpress videos and Wikipedia (as verified by various news articles) were used as resources