Region Preview: West

Just a quick note before we start: My friend has a charitable initiative that he's combining with March Madness. His brother died of SIDS (Sudden Infant Death Syndrome) as an infant, and he's started something to raise money for research to combat the disease. The website is run by a student group at Duke on their funds, so 100% of the donations go to charity. 50% of donations go to fight SIDS, while the top 5 brackets get to designate a charity for 10% of the donations each. The minimum donation is only $2. Obviously, he really appreciates anybody who participates and spreads the word. If this is something that interests you, please follow this link and help a good cause during this March Madness.

www.brackets4life.com

And now for the actual preview...




For the bracket, or for the water cooler... Enjoy. Skip this part if you want to get to the game previews. Each team will get a short blurb profile. Obviously, no guarantees in this craziest of seasons, but the more information you have, the better off you'll be.

Player to Watch:
Marshall Henderson of Ole Miss- for the 3's, the potential upset, and the entertainment value. THE GUY STRAIGHT UP CHOMPED AT FLORIDA FANS AFTER HITTING A 3. Seriously, it's worth tuning in just to see if he takes an actual badger out of his pants at tipoff. If we lose him in the first round, familiarize yourself with Kendall Williams, who put up 46 points at Colorado State in late February. He runs a New Mexico squad who are looking to put themselves and the Mountain West Conference on the map by making a deep tournament run. Other names to keep an eye on are Kansas State's Rodney McGruder, Belmont's Ian Clark, and Notre Dame's Jack Cooley.

Tossup Matchup: Notre Dame/Iowa State- This game doesn't exactly get the blood boiling, but it should be a tight contest against two evenly matched teams each from a power 6 conference. It should be a high scoring game, and watching Iowa State chuck 3's isn't the worst way to spend a Friday night (or one corner of your television screen).

Most Interesting Tidbit: From ESPN.com's 68 facts, Gonzaga would be the first team who went undefeated in conference play, won their conference tourney, and received the no. 1 seed, to win a championship if they went all the way. On the flip side, each of those teams reached the Elite Eight; most recently, Derrick Rose and John Calipari's Memphis that reached and lost the title game to Mario Chalmer's Kansas.

Biggest Mismatch: Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss. Not in terms of margin of victory, but in pace. Ole Miss runs the most possessions out of every tourney team, while Wisconsin is ahead of only 3 other tourney teams. (In case you're wondering, the two teams are Pittsburgh and Bucknell.) Notre Dame vs. Iowa State is a similar conundrum.

Committee Screw-up: Easy. Pittsburgh deserved a top 6 seed at the least, perhaps even a 5 or a 4. In the West that probably would have been enough to give them a shot at the Elite Eight if not the Final Four. As it is, they'll have a chance to prove themselves against a couple of mid majors in Wichita State, and if they advance, Gonzaga.

Best Hypothetical Moment: Definitely something involving Marshall Henderson, Bo Ryan, a buzzer beater and the words "complete bedlam".

Most Likely Cinderella: Considering the matchups, none of the double digit seeds seem likely to advance very far. Belmont could run wild, but they've yet to win an NCAA game in their history. Ole Miss could recover their top 25 form from earlier this season, especially after their SEC tourney run. And Pittsburgh could pull into the Elite Eight if they can beat Gonzaga. I wouldn't put too much on any one of those three happening though.

Game Previews

#1 Gonzaga (31-2, WCC) vs. #16 Southern University (23-9, SWAC)

Gonzaga: The Bulldogs ran through the WCC (undefeated in regular season and conference play) on the back of their two bigs Elias Harris and Kelly Osbourne... wait, what? You mean, his name is Kelly Olynyk? And he's not a woman...? Hold on... I have to change my WNBA mock draft.

Southern University: But let's give the Jaguars and the SWAC its time to shine. I can only assume that with powerhouses such as Prarie View A&M, Jackson State, and Arkansas Pine-Bluff, that SWAC stands for SWAG CONFERENCE. Also shout out to Grambling State for going 0 and 28. You'd think that you might accidentally win playing Alcorn State at home, but they proved otherwise. They even have a 7 foot senior who only managed 3.6 points per game. Check out that research.

But in all seriousness, Southern University's notable games this season included an opening day blowout loss at Iowa State (ELITE EIGHT REMATCH ALERT), a close win at Texas A&M, and the unforgettable 68-65 thriller at the home of future Big East powerhouse Tulane. (Please note that last line was a joke.)

Verdict: The only reason you're picking a 16 seed is that you're going balls deep. More power to you, but nothing I write here is really going to help your bracket.

#8 Pittsburgh (24-8, Big East) vs. #9 Wichita State (28-6, MVC)

Pittsburgh: The Panthers is a stingy defensive squad, but lacks a star player on offense, and relies on getting the ball near the hoop, having shot only 250 three pointers this season (ranking only ahead of Bucknell, Marquette, and Harvard in terms of tournament teams). They made it into this bracket by avoiding bad losses, beating down Georgetown in the capital and beating Syracuse at home. They played respectably enough in the competitive Big East, and garnered both a #17 AP ranking and the #7 slot on KenPom.com.

Wichita State: The Shockers have only two marquee wins, both single score games, at VCU and home against Creighton (who then turned around and beat them twice.) I'm a personal fan of their logo- which in prior years has encouraged me to pick them pull an upset or two- but they haven't played much competition this season, pulling just a 73rd rated strength of schedule, between Nevada and Seton Hall. On the other hand, they beat out Creighton for the regular season Mountain Valley Conference title, and lost only one game on the road (and that in triple overtime at Drake.) Their defense has also been strong all year long. They even have tournament experience, winning the NIT two years before, and having lost in the first round to VCU last year.

Verdict: I can't see Wichita State pulling it out. They haven't played someone of Pittsburgh's caliber all year, and if anything, Pittsburgh is under seeded. The more interesting match up comes up in the Terrific 32 if Pitt faces off against the Zags. (I only call it the Terrific 32 in rebellion against the "third round" moniker for something that is clearly the second round. So long live the Terrific 32.)

#5 Wisconsin (23-11, Big Ten) vs. #12 Ole Miss (26-8, SEC)

Wisconsin: The Badgers and Bo Ryan are fresh off playing Ohio State tight for the Big Ten tourney title. Wisconsin's worse loss of season is at Iowa (who was one of the last six out of the tournament) and has beat Indiana twice (once at Indiana, and once during the Big Ten tourney.)  The moral of their schedule (which includes some tough early losses to Florida, Creighton, Virginia, and Marquette) is that Wisconsin can compete with anyone, doesn't drop the easy ones, but is never a lock. There offense can also struggle at times, and they lack the talent of some of the other Big Ten teams, but they work hard and as a team, and have the confidence of already having topped a 1 seed twice this season (and Michigan twice.)

Ole Miss: Ole Miss was on the bubble as late as Sunday, and may not have made the big tourney, if not for winning the small one (as evidenced by the exclusion of every other SEC team save Florida and Missouri). They are led by Marshall Henderson, who has averaged 20 points and shoots almost 11 three's per game. He's also crazy, and at some point I expect him to turn the crowd and ask "ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?" Ole Miss also only has three wins over tournament teams (Missouri twice, and Florida), as well as a dreadful loss at Mississippi State.

Verdict: This matchup will be decided by two things: How hot Marshall Henderson is from three, and who controls the pace. I have faith in Bo Ryan and the battle tested Badgers to control the pace, to handle the tornado that is Marshall Henderson, and win the game.

#4 Kansas State (27-7, Big 12) vs. #13 Boise State (21-10, MWC)/#13 La Salle (21-9, A10)

Kansas State: Now Collin Klein is just one heck of an athlete, and just a good kid.... I mean, whoops. Wrong sport. Anyway, the Wildcats are led by senior Rodney McGruder, who average 16 points per game and has been to the tournament for the past three seasons. New head coach Bruce Weber also has tournament experience, but his team hasn't made it to the Sweet Sixteen since his Illinois team finished second in the country in 04-05. Kansas State shared the Big 12 title, with its only blemishes being a loss at Iowa State (highly respectable) and its inability to get by Kansas in three tries. All its other losses came to very good teams, and never at home. Kansas State doesn't beat itself, and will be a tough out for an inferior squad.

Boise State: Even the Broncos' head coach, Leon Rice admitted they got some help getting off the bubble. Boise State is by no means a bad basketball team, having the 22nd ranked strength of schedule, even picking up wins against higher seeds UNLV, Colorado State and San Diego State during the MWC regular season. Still, they have the vibe of a team that's just excited to be here and their defense is probably the weakest out of the at large teams to get in. Not a potent combination. It might be enough to get by La Salle, but probably not the Wildcats. They may be able to pull the upset if the sophomore's Anthony Drmic (HE'S AUSTRAILIAN) and Derrick Marks (averaging 17.3 and 16.3 points per game respectively) both get hot and carry the team, but their lack of size should be their final death knell.

La Salle: The Explorers boast wins against Butler, Villanova and at VCU, but also have a handful of bad losses. They have a potentially dangerous offense with 4 double digit scorers, including senior guard Ramon Galloway, who shoots over 40% from three. Still, I'm not totally sure they deserve to be here, and were probably the last at large team to sneak in. Their defense is shaky and their rebounding weak. I can't see them giving Kansas State any trouble.

Verdict: Regardless of the outcome of Wednesday's "first round", Kansas State should comfortably advance to the Terrific 32. If anyone cares, I think Boise State will pull out the first game.

#6 Arizona (25-7, Pac-12) vs. #11 Belmont (26-6, OVC)

Arizona: Undefeated in non-conference play, even clamoring for the number 1 spot in the AP poll in December and early January, the Wildcats have dropped dramatically after their early run. They still boast impressive wins against Florida and a 19 point win over Miami. However, they couldn't get past UCLA in three tries, and should have dropped two out of three to Colorado (recall the Sabatino Chen incident). Sean Miller may still have some of the best talent in the country, and athletically they can score and compete with anyone in the country. However, their big men have not nearly been what they need to be for the Wildcats to be serious contenders, and there defense is average at best. The hope is that senior guard Mark Lyons can lead a young Arizona team past the potential upset and to a tough date with New Mexico.

Belmont: By any measure, the "other" Bruins can score. They shoot well (Effective Field Goal %= 2nd), can get inside (1st in 2 pt FG%) and can shoot from deep (16th in made three pointers). They rock the 12th most points per game, while having only the 103rd most possessions in the country. And while they aren't as good defensively, they create the 11th most turnovers per possesion in the country (on almost 25% of possessions.) And senior guard Ian Clark averages 18.1 ppg on an absurd 54/84/46 split. Still, Belmont's schedule leaves a bit to be desired. They haven't beaten a team of Arizona's caliber all season (getting blown out at Kansas and losing to VCU), although they've handily beaten both Middle Tennessee and San Diego State. They needed a ball dribbled off Isaiah Canaan's foot to win their conference tourney, and would have been on the bubble otherwise. Will their play translate?

Verdict: If you're looking for an upset candidate, this game is as good as any. Belmont can score with the best of them (their lowest scoring game was 60 at Kansas), and Arizona doesn't have the talent or size inside to take advantage of Belmont. Arizona doesn't take great care of the ball (139th turnovers per possession) and Belmont can create more possessions out of that. I wouldn't blame you for choosing the talent overload on Arizona, but they'll have to outscore Belmont to get past them, and I'm not sure that will happen.

#3 New Mexico (29-5, MWC) vs. #14 Harvard (19-9, Ivy)

New Mexico: This is a good basketball squad. They won a tough Mountain West Conference in both the regular season and the tourney. I've already lauded Kendall Williams. They have a 7 footer down low in Alex Kirk, who plays almost 30 min a game. Tony Snell is the secondary scorer, a junior who has gotten hot recently, who has put up 19.8 points over his past 5 games. New Mexico played the 13th toughest schedule and finished with the 2nd highest RPI. They have a lackluster offense (probably part in due to the schedule), but they make up for it with an excellent defense. They have only 5 losses this season, 4 to tournament teams, and the last one at Air Force. The toughest team they've played is St. Louis (loss by 14), but they've gone 4-2 against the top 25 this season.

Harvard: The Crimson turn the ball over like it's their job, but get to the line and shoot well from the field. Look, as a general rule, if you're going to get excited about a 14 seed, don't get more excited about the team than fans from their school. (There's like three diehard Crimson fans who would get angry at that statement.) Still, they actually beat California (when they sucked), lost at St. Mary's (across the country) by only a point, played UConn close and smashed BC. So they're not terrible. Still, I wouldn't exactly predict them winning against a strong 3 seed. Side note: They only beat the MIT Engineers by 15 points on opening day. I'd like to ask who actually goes out and names their team the Engineers? It's like they just want to be made fun of. I have no other explanation.

New Mexico: I would be astonished if Harvard pulled the upset. This New Mexico squad has Elite Eight potential.

#7 Notre Dame (25-9, Big East) vs. #10 Iowa State (22-11, Big 12)

Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish like to slow things down (279th in possessions per game). Still, they have the 24th most efficient offense in the country. They're simply a good basketball squad on both sides of the ball. They've been pushed through the Big East going only 11-7. They beat Louisville in that 5OT thriller and won in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati (earlier in the season), and against Marquette on neutral ground. And senior Jack Cooley is a force to be reckoned with, averaging 13 ppg, 10 rpg on 57 FG% and 70 FT%  this season.

Iowa State: The Cyclones are a stormy blur on the court (sorry, I had to). They're fast (19th in possessions per game) and they can score (16th offensive efficiency). Nearly 44% of their shots are 3's (most in the tourney), so there output can be volatile. They've pushed Kansas in to OT twice (once with the refs lending a hand to the Jayhawks.) They've beaten both Kansas State and Oklahoma State. But they lack size (their leading rebounder is 6-6) and don't exactly bottle up the opposition.

Verdict: This should be a fun high scoring game. Both teams have faced competition of this level all season, and both want a shot at Ohio State. And although Iowa State will be the more fun team to pick (and I admit, I really want to pick them to pull the upset on Ohio State), I think Notre Dame should be able to make this a half-court game, and I'm not sure Iowa State has an answer for Jack Cooley.

#2 Ohio State (26-7, Big Ten) vs. #15 Iona (20-13, MAAC)

Ohio State: The Buckeyes, simply put, are one of the best teams in college basketball. They have the 3rd highest strength of schedule and the 10th highest RPI. Thad Matta is one of the best coaches in the game, and the core of this team (the top 3 players in minutes- DeShaun Thomas, Aaron Craft, and Lenzelle Smith Jr. have been to the Sweet 16 three years in a row, and to the Final Four last year. They haven't lost to a team ranked out of the top 25 all season (only Illinois dropped out after the fact). They're a better defensive team than offensive, but they don't turn the ball over and DeShaun Thomas is one of the best scorers in the country. If Aaron Craft is on, they do what they did over the past week, beat everybody they play, even in the toughest conference in America.

Iona: The Gaels is one of the better offensive teams in the nation (17th in offensive efficiency). However, they also had 7 losses in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Their only respectable win is (in fairness) an absolute thrashing of Wake Forest on neutral court. Lamont Jones, the Arizona State transfer, averages 23 points per game, and they have a deep bench, but they lack size and it would simply take a miracle to push them into the next round.

Verdict: If Ohio State doesn't handle its business here, they've just been trolling the nation all season.

Round of 32

#1 Gonzaga vs. #8 Pittsburgh

As a Duke fan, I've been railing against Gonzaga all season, but now that everybody has joined the bandwagon, I wanted to examine the other side. Gonzaga is ranked #4 in RPI and has only lost in the Hinkle Fieldhouse on a buzzer beater (against a top 25 team), and against Illinois when Brandon Paul put up 35, and they were still undefeated (that Illinois team then proceeded to also beat Indiana and Ohio State later in the season). Meanwhile, (here's what they've done against tournament teams) Gonzaga has won at Oklahoma State, won by 16 on neutral court against Kansas State, absolutely demolished Oklahoma on neutral ground (72-47), and beat Saint Mary's three times. This is a VERY GOOD basketball team. And while they may be more of a 2 or a 3 seed, that still puts them ahead of Pittsburgh in terms of where they should be seeded. This is a matchup which seems to fit all the stereotypes about this season. Gonzaga is an overrated mid-major/Pittsburgh is underseeded/THIS SEASON IS CRAZY. But look past that and see that Gonzaga is a team that put up the 3rd best scoring margin, and the 6th best effective field goal percentage in the nation. They're solid defensively and rebounding, and while it's probably overrated by a weak schedule, they also take their foot off the pedal statistically in the second half because they've been blowing by teams in the first half. Neither team shoots a lot of 3's, but Gonzaga is much better at stopping the inside game that Pittsburgh relies on for points.

Verdict: The Bulldogs will know they're a popular upset pick. They won't take this game lightly.

#4 Kansas State vs. #5 Wisconsin

This is a good game between two solid basketball teams who know who they are and execute. Both these teams like to play SLOW and both teams have played tough schedules (#16 SOS and #2 SOS, respectively). Kansas State has the star power in McGruder to avoid prolonged offensive slumps like Wisconsin is prone to (see: Big Ten tourney). But while Kansas State is a stronger offensive squad, they are a much weaker defensive squad than Wisconsin. And Wisconsin also is adept at running teams off the three point line (top 10 in attempts and made 3 pointers against), which is a big part of the Kansas State offense. The offensive rebounding edge that the Wildcats also usually is neutralized by a very good defensive rebounding squad in the Wisconsin Badgers. The Badgers are probably also under ranked a little after taking down Indiana a second time in the Big Ten tourney.

Verdict: This one is a close one, as close to a tossup as I give in this Terrific 32. I think Wisconsin pulls out a grinder though. This game probably won't be the most exciting to watch until the closing moments.

#3 New Mexico vs. #11 Belmont


Another exciting game. The question will be if Belmont can stop New Mexico enough times to keep it close. Belmont is so good at shooting the 3, and New Mexico's weak link on the defense is defending the 3. The Lobos can't sacrifice the inside to defend the 3 either, because Belmont will take advantage of that. Plus, the Lobos don't take excellent care of the ball and Belmont will do their best to take advantage of that as well. New Mexico also hasn't put away teams all season. For comparison, Wisconsin, who had to struggle through the Big Ten gauntlet (and had a harder schedule) had an average scoring margin of 9.6, good for 26th in the country. New Mexico is only at 7, which is 54th in the country. (Belmont is 11th, albeit against a much weaker schedule). If Ian Clark gets hot, watch out.

Verdict: I'd have no problem with someone playing the chalk, but Belmont is my cinderella in the Western Region. They haven't beaten someone of this caliber all season, but if they can get the monkey off the back on their first round, they might just end up surprising a New Mexico squad that is looking ahead to Ohio State.

#2 Ohio State vs. #7 Notre Dame

This is an interesting matchup, because Notre Dame will have no fear of Ohio State after the caliber of teams it has played during the regular season. Notre Dame is efficient on both ends of the court, and doesn't turn the ball over or foul. However, they don't take many threes, don't offensive rebound, and don't create turnovers. Jack Cooley is consistent, but has put up over 20 points only two times this season. It's not exactly the recipe for an upset.

Verdict: Look for Ohio State to make it a fourth straight trip to the sweet 16.

Sweet Sixteen

#1 Gonzaga vs. #5 Wisconsin

A team that finished 5th in the toughest conference (and had 6 losses) against the undefeated winner of a mid-major? Isn't that the perfect test to for the mid-major vs. the big 6 conferences argument? Gonzaga is comfortable playing at a smaller pace, and already handily beat Kansas State, the team that Wisconsin matches up so closely with. Really Gonzaga's biggest weakness is defensive rebounding, but Wisconsin can't take advantage of it. Both teams play a style of game that leads to low turnovers, so there's not many extra possessions to go around. Wisconsin does shoot a lot of threes, and Gonzaga isn't particularly good at defending them, but I don't think that will be enough for a team that hasn't advanced past the Sweet Sixteen since 04-05.

Verdict: This game is really going to be about execution, and this time I give it to the team that has the star power in Gonzaga. If Wisconsin gets hot from 3, they could make this interesting.


#2 Ohio State vs. #11 Belmont

All dreams must end somewhere. And for Belmont, it will be in the Staples Center in Los Angeles, CA. And while they're not terrific at stopping the 3, they take care of the ball, have an elite scorer to slice through the Belmont defense, and have Aaron Craft to bottle up Ian Clark. I can't in good conscience pick Belmont.

Verdict: Ohio State is simply the better team. They have feasted on weaker competition, not losing a non-tournament team all season, and winning by less than 10 against a non-tournament team only twice. Belmont would need to shoot the lights out to outscore the Buckeyes.

Elite Eight

#1 Gonzaga vs. #2 Ohio State

In the end, this bracket comes down to the chalk. #1 vs. #2. The Big Ten tourney champion vs. The Last Regular Season #1 in the AP poll. And in the end, I think the talent on both these teams is about equal, but the experience favors Ohio State. At the same time, Ohio State is going to be exhausted from the Big Ten gauntlet, while Gonzaga is going to be fresh, and gaining confidence after proving their mettle in wins against two solid teams. Neither really exploits the others weaknesses. Gonzaga has no answer for DeShaun Thomas, but Aaron Craft can't really do much on Kelly Olynyk. This is another game that will come down to execution.

Verdict: My gut says Gonzaga, my brain says Ohio State. In cases like this, I like to go gut, but I hate to doubt my brain. I'm going to put Ohio State down, simply because it's less likely they lose earlier in the tourney, but don't be surprised to see the outsiders from Spokane, Washington in Atlanta come Final Four time.

Final Bracket

*All stats from http://www.teamrankings.com/