To Fire or Not to Fire, That is the Question

Do you guys remember last Friday, the second day of this iteration of March Madness, when the 6th-seeded UCLA Bruins, coached by Ben Howland, played the 11th-seeded Minnesota Gophers, coached by Tubby Smith? Did you watch the game either hoping that your favorite team would pull it out, or that whatever semblance of a respectable bracket you had left would remain intact? Well, guess what, that game didn’t matter at all. In fact, that game may have been the least significant game in the history of the NCAA Tournament. Why, you might ask? Well, because, regardless of who won, neither UCLA nor Minnesota was winning the national championship, your bracket is already screwed, and both coaches were going to get fired. On Friday night, the underdog Minnesota won. They followed the victory with a loss to 3rd-seeded Florida, and Tubby Smith promptly got canned. The moral of the story is that no matter the outcome of that round one game against UCLA, Minnesota’s board of directors had already deemed the season a failure, and were determined to give their head coach the pink slip. On the other side, UCLA's loss resulted in the unceremonious firing of Ben Howland. Now, does anybody out there think Howland was going to keep his job if he lost to Florida? Does anybody think UCLA could have beaten Florida? I don't think so. Therefore the predetermined result of this game was that no matter who won, both teams were going to lose in the next round and end up firing their coach.

Since the dawn of Twitter, the blogosphere, Facebook, and all those other social media outlets, sports has begun to orbit around the giant sun named “what have you done for me lately?” In this galaxy, top head coaches in their sport with successful track records such as Jeff Fisher, Lovie Smith, Andy Reid, Joe Torre, Terry Francona, and Stan Van Gundy get fired without their bosses blinking an eye. The Eagles ignored five NFC Championship Games in eight years and focused on two straight disappointing seasons. The Red Sox ignored Terry Francona leading the team that broke the Curse of the Bambino and focused on beer and fried chicken.¹ Heck, Heat fans rallied for Erik Spoelstra’s head after losing a game to the Pacers last year because they didn’t have Chris Bosh and Coach Spo argued with Dwayne Wade. Then they did it again when the Celtics went up 3-2 in the Eastern Conference Finals.²  I’m pretty sure all Heat fans are happy they didn’t do that right about now…

           So the argument is, do these coaches deserve to lose their job for failure shortly after long periods of sustained success or do they just need time to work through their problems?

Ben Howland coached the UCLA Bruins for 10 seasons, piling up 223 wins, 4 Conference Titles, and 3 straight Final Four’s from 2006-2008. He just hauled in the number 1 recruiting class in the country, and for god’s sake they won the regular season Pac-12 championship THIS SEASON. I guarantee you that 90% of Division 1 Athletic Directors would sell their soul to Satan for 3 final fours in 10 years, 4 conference championships, and the national media attention Howland attracted with the star-studded players he brought to Cali. And for those who say that he couldn’t maximize the young talent he was bringing in; tell that to Kevin Love, Darren Collison, Jrue Holliday, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Arron Afflalo, Russell Westbrook, and others who credit Howland for their success. And let’s not forget that UCLA was missing arguably their second best player, Jordin Adams, for both the PAC-12 Tournament title game and the NCAA Tournament. Take away Travis Releford from Kansas, Tim Hardaway Jr. from Michigan, or Ryan Kelly from Duke, less than a week before the tournament begins and there’s a good chance all of them fail to meet tournament expectations too. I understand that the Reeves Nelson scandal³ had some weight in UCLA’s ultimate decision, but if UCLA was really that embarrassed by the whole thing, they should have followed their morals and fired Howland at the end of last year. You know, the year that they didn’t make the Big Dance or win the PAC-12.

Tubby Smith had 124 wins in 6 years up in Minnesota, and in 2012 the Gophers had their most wins in a single season since 1996. Tubby led Minnesota to become a symbol of consistency, leading his team to 20 wins in 5 of their last 6 seasons. He did this in the grueling Big Ten. I am not going to argue that Smith is some genius head coach who could have led Minnesota to a Final Four with the snap of his fingers in the upcoming season. Frankly, I think he is very overrated, makes questionable substitution decisions, and should have let Rodney Williams become a star instead of holding him to 28 minutes and 8 field goal attempts per game. That being said, if Minnesota thinks they are going to find a Head Coach with a NCAA title ring, well earned respect from greats like Tom Izzo and Coach K, and a large presence on the recruiting trail⁴ in the coaching market, they have another thing coming.

The bottom line with both of these firings is that Smith and Howland are good choices in bad spots. Smith went to a school with unrealistic expectations upon his arrival, hoping he would be some sort of god-send and send them to the Promised Land. Instead, Smith restored respectability and competitiveness to the Gopher name, but it was clearly not enough. On the other hand, Howland suffered from what I call “Stale Message Syndrome”⁵. This is when smart coaches are stuck in the same place for too long, and their message in the locker room becomes meaningless, players get too comfortable, and all hell breaks loose, a la Andy Reid and Terry Francona.

I have no doubt that Andy Reid will significantly improve the Kansas City Chiefs and Terry Francona will bolster the Cleveland Indians because their new players will respect their track records, follow their lead, and welcome the new head coach. On that note, Ben Howland is going to be a major coup for whichever team is fortunate enough to have him fall in their lap. If Tubby Smith doesn’t walk away from coaching, he could help rebuild a declining program (I’m thinking Georgia Tech or Auburn), then pass it off to a young successor of his choosing. But the ultimate reason these examples are so important is to understand that change is not always for the better. The huge gambles these teams are taking are incredibly risky and could blow up in their face. Sure Chip Kelly⁶ could lead the Eagles to their first Super Bowl victory ever, but he could also be a colossal failure who has Eagles fans begging to relive the Andy Reid era. After all, when the Red Sox fired Terry Francona they thought that their problem was solved, and that they had hired a knight in shining armor in new manager Bobby Valentine. How did that turn out? Teams and more importantly, fans, should start appreciating their success more when it happens, and not think that every year without a championship is a failure. After all, you don’t know what you got till it's gone.

¹Seriously, everybody remember this… http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/20/sports/baseball/red-sox-off-season-consumed-by-fried-chicken-and-beer.html?_r=0

²Again, not exaggerating, http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1211928-miami-heat-on-brink-of-elimination-should-erik-spoelstra-be-fired

³In case you aren't familiar with this scandal: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1195501/index.htm

⁴I fully understand that Tubby Smith wasn’t hauling in 5-star recruits, but there was no chance he was going to steal any studs from the powers in the Big Ten. He did the best he could do getting the Hollins brothers, Rodney Williams, and Trevor Mbakwe.

⁵ Trademarked

⁶ Just a quick side note: I almost wrote an article ranking which teams made the best coaching hires in the NFL this year, and the Eagles would have easily been one. Chip Kelly is a genius and it is only a matter of time (4 years) till he rebuilds the Eagles. Year one, they finish last in the NFC East, but play a smart, quick, and physcial brand of football that appeals to all Eagles fans. They then move up in the draft and select either Teddy Bridgewater, Tajh Boyd, or Johnny Manziel. Year two, The Eagles become a surprisingly quick contender with their brand new quarterback. Year three, Chip leads the Birds to the playoffs. Year four, Chip wins the Super Bowl, retires, and becomes mayor of Philly. The Eagles then foolishly hire Jon Gruden, who sends the team into a downward spiral causing them to fire him, re-hire Kelly, who wins back-to-back championships and then becomes President of the United States.