ESPN's Bottom Line - Version 2.0

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Week 9 Predictions

13 Kansas City at San Diego 23
I really don't like either of these teams, but when push comes to shove I'll take Philip Rivers at home against Matt Cassel.  This is a terrible thursday night game; both of these squads are mediocre.

38 Denver at Cincinnati 13
Denver has won their last two games scoring 35 and 34 points, respectively, while Cincinnati is reeling losing its last 3 contests.  I expect these trends to continue as I project Peyton Manning to throw all over Cincinnati's 25th rank D in terms of points per game allowed.

24 Baltimore at Cleveland 20
People seem to be counting out the Ravens as a contender this year, especially after the injuries to Ladarius Webb and Ray Lewis.  Their offense was anemic two weeks ago against Houston as Joe Flacco struggled on the road and Ray Rice only ran 9 times. However, they are still 5-2 and in sole possession of 1st in the division.  Many are going with a Browns upset at home, but I'm sticking with a Ravens eek-it-out type of win on the road (similar to the last time these two teams met, on a thursday night in September).  Expect Ray Rice to get the rock early and often.

9 Arizona at Green Bay 31
Arizona has lost 4 straight now and Green Bay has won 3 straight.  This is a simple case of two teams headed in completely different directions.  Green Bay wins in a blowout as Arizona can not muster any offense without a run game and John Skelton at the helm.

30 Chicago at Tennessee 3
The Bears are coming off a 1 point win over the 1-6 Panthers and the Titans are coming off an overtime loss against the 4-3 Colts.  I think Chris Johnson reverts back to his classic 14 carries for 24 yards ways (maybe even less yards than that) as the Bears D completely shuts down the Titans.  Look for the Bears D to score 1 or 2 defensive touchdowns as usual.  

10 Miami at Indianapolis 13
Two 4-3 teams with playoff aspirations clash in Indy this week.  I'll take Andrew Luck at home over Tannehill or Matt Moore.  I foresee a wild card spot in Indy's future this year as Andrew Luck is as good as advertised.

31 Carolina at Washington 41
Cam Newton vs Robert Griffin 111.  This game is a fans dream.  Both teams will put up tons of offense in the nations capital, but Carolina's losing ways will continue as RG111 brings his team to 4-5.

16 Detroit at Jacksonville 19
I'm taking the upset pick of the Jags at home.  I think both teams stink but I like Gabbert to have a decent game getting his squad their 2nd win of the year.  Matthew Stafford will confuse many by struggling against the Jags one week after a 352 yard, 3 TD performance against Seattle's staunch D.

7 Buffalo at Houston 26
Great elimination pool pick game here with the Texans home against the Jekyll and Hyde Bills.  Foster will run amuck and Schaub will throw a couple TD in a Texan blowout.  

20 Tampa Bay at Oakland 17
Doug Martin put on a show last week in Minnesota in what was his coming out party to the league.  Josh Freeman gets another win on the road in Oakland bringing Tampa's record to 500.

7 Minnesota at Seattle 20
After a game in which Seattle gave up 28 points, look for them to rebound defensively at home against a struggling Vikings offense.  Christian Ponder has looked like his previous rookie self the past 2 weeks and Adrian Peterson will not find much running room with the Seahawks stuffing the box.  Seattle's elite D returns to form with a win at CenturyLink Field.

16 Pittsburgh at NY Giants 31
Coming off a big win at home against the Skins, I expect Pittsburgh to struggle on the road against the G-Men.  The Giants continue to reel off wins taking their 5th straight.

28 Dallas at Atlanta 17
In my upset special of the week, I have the Cowboys going in the Georgia Dome and taking down the Falcons by double digits.  The Falcons are the only undefeated team left at 7-0, however, I can name a bunch of teams I think are better than them in a vacuum (49ers, Bears, Giants, Texans).  They are not as good as their record indicates and will trip up big-time to the struggling Cowboys.  The key to this game will be if the Cowboys can get off to an early lead.  I like Romo to threw a couple early TD.  Also key in this game will be if DeMarco Murray plays or not (currently questionable).  Regardless, I like the Boys this week, but I don't think Jason Witten snags 18 catches again.  Michael Turner will not be able to run at all over Dallas' solid D forcing Matty Ice to sling it around.  Dallas has a sneaky good D this year even without MLB Sean Lee.

17 Philadelphia at New Orleans 26
It's only a matter of time before Andy Reid gets the boot; he's a terrible coach.  When Vick and crew only muster a measly 17 spot against a New Orleans Saints defense that is giving up 30.9 points per game (30th in the league), speculation will be on the Eagles QB decision and coaching debacle.  Reid said today Vick will be his starter but will see what he says after the Eagles drop this one.  Who Dat nation improves to 3-5 although they aren't going anywhere this year either.

Byes: St. Louis, NY Jets, New England, San Francisco

Last Week: 10-4
Season: 69-49

Release the Hounds (start em)

QB- Cam Newton- going up against the 29th fantasy D v QB, Cam will have a field day.  Start with confidence regardless of his past performance this year
Projection: 303 yds, 2 TD, INT, 60 rush yds, TD... 30 points
RB- Michael Bush- for a deeper league, look for Bush to get back to being involved in the offense.  I expect the Bears to be up big meaning a lot of running in the 2nd half.  Maybe he'll vulture a TD or 2.                    
Projection: 12 carries, 50 yds, TD... 11 points
WR- Denarius Moore.. he isn't getting much attention but he has reached paydirt 4 of the past 5 weeks. Going against a Buccaneer D that is 30th against WR, look for a long TD for Denarius
Projection: 4 rec, 104 yds, TD... 16 points
TE- Greg Olsen... Washington is 31st against TE and I expect this one to be a slugfest.  Look for Olsen to find the endzone.
Projection: 6 rec, 73 yds, TD... 13 points
D/ST- GB D/ST...  Arizona has allowed double digits to defenses in their last 5 games and the Packers have scored positive numbers all year...
Projection: 9 points allowed, 7 sacks, 2 INT... 15 points

Ride the Pine (sit em)

QB- Andy Dalton- Broncos D will be applying the pressure all day and he's coming off a 6 pt dud vs pitt.
Projection: 247 yds, TD, 2 INT... 9 points
RB- C.J Spiller- he's only been averaging 12 carries the past 2 weeks and against Houston's D, that's not going to lead to many points
Projection: 10 carries, 41 yds... 4 points
WR- Julio Jones- Dallas is the 7th best D against WR... Also, Julio/Roddy have been switching off performing every other week.  In every week, one has had double digits points and one hasn't.  Last week, it was Julio who copped 123 yards and a score.  It's Rowdy Roddy's turn to explode this week.
Projection: 3 rec, 31 yds... 3 points
TE- Jimmy Graham- Philly locks down TE (5th against TE) so look for Brees to attack vertically/outside the numbers
Projection: 6 rec, 52 yds... 5 points
D/ST- ARI D/ST- They are 5th in points but do not be fooled, Rodgers will go to town on Sunday.
Projection: 31 points allowed, 3 sacks... -1 points

Chinese word of the day: 厨房 (Chúfáng) definition: kitchen
source:  Kimi Shi kimi shi fb

Thursday, October 25, 2012

Week 8 Predictions

16 Tampa Bay at Minnesota 20
Minnesota is just a better team.  Despite Christian Ponder's 2 pick, 58 yd performance against Arizona, the Vikings secured their 5th victory.  If they can win with that showing from Ponder, imagine how they'll do when Ponder goes up against the cup-cake Tampa Bay D.  The Cashier (AP) will run down the Bucs' throat setting up the pass for Ponder to Harvin against Tampa's atrocious secondary (31st in passing yds/game).  This thursday night game will be Minny's coming out party; they will show they are not a fluke.

14 Carolina at Chicago 23 
This must-win affair for Carolina could not have come against a worse team.  Cam Newton will go on the road to Chicago to face the #1 defense this year.  Chicago's D will continue to dominate as the Panthers will lose their 1st game since the firing of GM Marty Hurney.

16 San Diego at Cleveland 17
I was debating between a San Diego blowout victory or a Cleveland win by the skin of their teeth.  I decided on the latter upon realizing I have zero trust in Norv and Rivers.  Although the Browns only have 1 win, Brandon Weeden has looked real solid recently as he has developed chemistry with young wideout Josh Gordon.  I predict a Browns victory that lays the ground work for the eventual firing of Norv later this year.   

25 Seattle at Detroit 20
Matthew Stafford looked AWFUL last week.  I think the Lions are settling into their role as a 6-10 team this year, they have no run game and defenses are scheming against Calvin Johnson (only 3 catches last week).  Lynch runs all over Detroit and Russ Wilson doesn't turn the ball over leading to a Seahawk win on the road.

24 New England at St. Louis 21
The consensus here is that the Pats (4-3) are going to take control of the division with a blow-out victory overseas (game being playing in England) against the 3-4 Rams.  There is a problem with this logic, however.  The Pats looked bad last week, that was an ugly win vs the Jets.  The Rams D is legit, they have a solid pass-rush with Robert Quinn and Chris Long, have a field general in James Laurinaitis, and have two solid cornerbacks in Cortland Finnegan and rookie Janoris Jenkins.  I think the Rams give the Pats some trouble this week.  However, I can't see the Pats losing this one.  I think they win in an ugly-fashion in the UK.

17 Miami at NY Jets 20
Of course I'm going with the Jets home against Miami.  During these teams first meeting of the year, Miami dominated most of the game but the Jets came away with an overtime victory.  I think the Jets make a concerted effort to stop Reggie Bush (61 first half rush yards last time before leaving due to injury) forcing the rookie Tannehill to win the game.  I actually think the Dolphins are a decent team but I like the Jets to improve to 500.

26 Atlanta at Philadelphia 13
Andy Reid is 13-0 all-time coming off byes.  I think that comes to an end on sunday at home against the undefeated Falcons.  The Eagles have been a mess this year and I don't think their ineptitude can be solved by the bye.  I like Matty Ice and the boys to improve to 7-0.

31 Washington at Pittsburgh 28
I'm calling a classic at Heinz, an explosion of offense culminating in a victory for RG3 and his skins.  Coming off a disappointing defeat in New York (the defense lost them the game), RG3 will come out running and throwing like usual en route to a win in Pittsburgh.

13 Jacksonville at Green Bay 24 
This is a gimme game.  A great pick for an elimination pool.  Green Bay will take this one without any problems.  Rodgers and the Pack are back and MJD is out.  The Jags have 83 first downs this season (over 20 less than anyone else)  Saying their offense is anemic is an overstatement.  

33 Indianapolis at Tennessee 23
I know the Titans are 3-4 but I really think they are a door-matt type squad.  Andrew Luck will carve up this D and get another win for Coach Pagano.  I think the Colts are a sneaky contender this year, I mean, the AFC needs to field 2 wild card teams doesn't it?

30 Oakland at Kansas City 13
Brady Quinn is starting for Kansas City.  I like going against Brady Quinn 

34 NY Giants at Dallas 17
In Week 1, the Giants lost at home against Dallas as DeMarco Murray trounched the G-Men's D to the tune of 131 yards on the ground.  Murray is out this week; the Cowboys will be looking to attack via the air but I just have no trust in Tony Romo.  Eli takes the G-Men to 6-2.

17 New Orleans at Denver 31 
I really don't think the Saints are any good this year.  Their defense is porous; it will be carved up like a jack o'lantern on october 31st.  Peyton Manning is about to put on a show continuing his magic from the 2nd half vs San Diego.

21 San Francisco at Arizona 3
Arizona started the year 4-0.  They turned experts heads (who, for the most part, had them as a door-matt) with their incredible D especially in their wins over New England and Philly.  But after a thursday night football loss against St. Louis, they haven't been the same.  Their O-line was exposed as one of the worst in football and now the kinda-competent Kevin Kolb is injured, replaced by the not-so competent John Skelton.  San Fran is gonna shut this offense down just like they shut down Buffalo, the Jets and Seattle.  After their hot start, I could see Arizona falling to 4-6, playing Green Bay and Atlanta on the road after this contest.  They'll finish under 500.

Byes: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Houston

Last Week: 7-6
Season: 59-45

Fantasy Football: Release the Hounds (start em) , Ride the Pine (sit em) starting next week

Chinese word of the day: 面条 (Mian) definition: noodle
source: Kimi Shi

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Week 7 Predictions

7 Seattle at San Francisco 16 
Peter Carrol's squad thinks they're hot shit right now after beating Tom Brady, Tony Romo and Aaron Rodgers* at home so far this year.  Seattle CB Richard Sherman said after the win over New England that no great ball-club is 3-3, or average.  It's ironic because Sherman goes onto brag about how good Seattle is when they should be 3-3 if it wasn't for the incompetence of high school referree/Bank of America employee/NFL official Lance Easley (his name alone exudes incompetence).  Check out the pic of Sherman smack talking Brady that the CB put on twitter (great caption) U MAD BRO.  Basically, I think Sherman and coach Carroll are way too happy to be 4-2 right now and their destined for a reality-check against a San Francisco D that is 2nd v the pass.  Wilson will throw a pick or 2 and San-Fran will show why they are the class of the NFC West.

21 Tennessee at Buffalo 27
Buffalo is one of the strangest teams in the NFL... in their 3 wins, they have no given up 20 points or more but in their 3 losses, they've given up an average of 48.3 points per game. I predict the good Bills will show up on Sunday against a Titans D coming off a high after defeating Pittsburgh.  The Titans defensive is absolutely dreadful; Fitzpatrick/Spiller will shred it.  Bills win at home.

24 Washington at NY Giants 27
The Giants will take care of business at home against an up and coming Redskins team.  I predict a close one though, a classic down-to-the-last-play NFC East affair but in the end I like Eli to get the job done.

24 New Orleans at Tampa Bay 26
The Saints defense is dreadful  and I see them going no where this season.  Tampa Bay is 2-3 but their point differential is + 18.  They have been losing close games, but I say that trend ends this week as Josh Freeman orchestrates a 4th quarter drive to beat New Orleans.

17 Baltimore at Houston 27
Houston's loss of MLB Brian Cushing for the year is a big blow, but the Ravens loses of CB Ladarius Webb and living-legend MLB Ray Lewis hurt even more.  Lewis is the backbone of the team; his inspirational speeches can make the manliest of men break down in tears.  Watch the Lewish speech that opens Madden 13 Madden Speech or this random speech he gave to players of his alma mata, the U speech to the U.  Dude is the best motivational speaker in the league and the Ravens will struggle defensively without him (especially against Arian Foster who will be hungry after a 29 yd performance v Green Bay).  I also think Baltimore has been winning games they shouldn't be winning (beat NE by 1 bc of bad field goal call, barely scraped by the Browns and Chiefs, beat Dallas last week bc of poor dallas clock management/dez bryant dropped 2 pc).  Houston had 1 bad game; they are still elite and they will win this one.

27 Dallas at Carolina 34
Cam Newton will have 1 week where he goes bizerk (he hasn't eclipsed 350 total yards passing/running) and think it comes off a bye, at home, v a team that can't finish games.  I expect a high scoring affair as Carolina's D is abysmal, but I do not think Romo will finish the job.  I can't see Cam's team dropping to 1-5; I like the Panthers in a close one.

24 Green Bay at St. Louis 10
Rodgers is determined to show the NFL world that the Packers are still elite.  He threw for 6 TD at Houston last week and now he has another challenge against a sneaky-good Rams D (5th best D in terms of total points allowed).  I think Rodgers takes care of business ensuring the Pack do not drop below 500

6 Arizona at Minnesota 31
two unexpected 4-2 teams go head to head.. If Minnesota goes ahead early this game is over as Arizona has no offense.  This will either be a defensive struggle or a Minnesota blowout.  I'm going with the latter.  I also have a policy of going against absolutely atrocious QB on the road (John Skelton) and it worked last week going against Brady Quinn at Tampa Bay.

29 Cleveland at Indianapolis 13
With virtually no threat on the ground (Donald Brown out and Vick Ballard averaging 2.3 yds/carry this year) Indy's attack will be all air against the Browns, who just got back their Pro-Bowl shutdown CB Joe Haden back.  AJ Green torched Haden for 7 catches, 135 yds and 2 scores last week, but this week I think Haden shuts down Reggie Wayne.  Luck will be out of luck this week as Trent Richardson runs all over the Colts paltry run D (29th in rush yards/game)

16 Jacksonville at Oakland 34
The consensus among NFL heads is that Oakland sucks, but they had a positive showing last week off a bye in Atlanta.  Home against Blaine Gabbert's Jags, I foresee a blowout in Oakland.  Oakland will run all over the Jags and once they go up, Gabbert will not be able to bring Jacksonville back due to the fact that he sucks. (29th in passer rating).  The only thing Gabbert has going for him is his sick hairdoo.  He's terrible.

14 NY Jets at New England 17
I really wanted to pick the Jets here but I couldn't.  Brady/Belichick will be pissed after pissing away the game at Seattle.  I do think it will be a low scoring affair as Jets safeties can cover Gronk/Hernandez and Cromartie can shut down Welker.  I predict Brady will struggle but ultimately they will come out with the W, to Rex Ryan's dismay.  What sucks is that the Jets will probably lose a close one leaving hope that Sanchez can still be the franchise QB (he can't)

20 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati 22
Cincy was posied to break out after starting off hot at 3-1 looking forward to cup-cake matchups against the Dolphins at home and Cleveland on the road.  Of course, with the parody in the AFC this year, they lost both of these matchups and are now 2 games behind the Ravents at 3-3.  In fact, only 2 AFC teams are above 500 (BAL and HOU at 5-1) making it difficult to tell who is elite, good, mediocre, bad, awful and god-awful in the AFC.  I'm leaning towards Cincy coming together and becoming a contender and I'm not sold on Pit.  I'll take Cincy with Shaun Suisham missing a possible game-winning FG for Pit

14 Detroit at Chicago 10
In a monday night shocker; I have Stafford and crew taking down the ferocious Bears D.  Jay Cutler is poised for a break-down as people are too high on Da Bears.  I think the Bears D plays another great one, but Cutler has an erratic game ending in a game-changer pick 6.  I also would like to take the over (-12.5) on how many gushy-praising comments Jon Gruden makes on the Chicago pass rush.  Dude called JJ Watt a hall of fame candidate last week in Houston.  Watt is a beast but he is 23...

Last Week: 7-7
Season: 52-39

Chinese word of the day: 饼干 (Bing Gan) definition: cookie
(not to be confused with 丙肝 which translates to Hepatitis C)
source: Kan T. (Kevin) there will be no facebook link as my friend request remains pending

Monday, October 15, 2012

Ni Hao

     I have decided to start a football blog because, simply put, I am obsessed with the NFL.  Every week I predict the scores of the games on my nifty yellow legal pad and keep track of how many games I get right and wrong.  After going 11-3 last week and correctly predicting the Colts, playing for their Leukemia stricken and much revered coach Chuck Pagano, to defeat Green Bay, I realized that my predictions needed to be given to the masses.  I also wanted a forum where I could give my thoughts on all things NFL (and fantasy of course).  Furthermore, my blog will serve to teach a limited amount of chinese (cantonese not mandarin for those who were wondering) to my audience as many of my college floormates hail from the land of the red, sesame chicken and mass-produced items.  I will be posting weekly predictions as well as random and sporadic lists and analysis on the league. 

I will be posting Week 7 predictions in the next couple of days as well as a comprehensive list of the top 32 NFL qb's ranked (with tiers)

To hold my readers over till then, I would like to share a concept I developed yesterday while watching the cowboys/ravens game (and I subsequently sent an email of my concept to the great Bill Simmons)

While watching the game I realized that when Tony Romo (unfortunately my starting fantasy QB) dropped back to pass, I was NOT rooting for him to complete a pass.  I did not hope for a TD.  I did not hope for a big gain to Dez Bryant (my usual flex starter).  I did not hope for anything positive.  In fact, I found myself hoping he would NOT throw an interception.  I just didn't want him to screw up and lose me points.  This is a new level in fantasy lowness and I have dubbed it the
Romo Zone of fantasy lowness.  Here are the parameters
1) he has to be playing absolutely dreadful (Romo was 28th in fantasy points among QB)
2) you have to be too afraid to bench him (because of his past success in fantasy, I was nervous that if I bench him he will return to form)
3) you have to root for him NOT to screw up rather than to succeed (caught myself doing this numerous times including a drop back on 3rd and goal)

Thank God I have Arian Foster... (and Roddy White... and AJ Green)

Chinese word of the day: Ni Hao definition: Hello
source: Kimi Shi (