ESPN's Bottom Line - Version 2.0

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Week 9 Predictions


13 Kansas City at San Diego 23
I really don't like either of these teams, but when push comes to shove I'll take Philip Rivers at home against Matt Cassel.  This is a terrible thursday night game; both of these squads are mediocre.

38 Denver at Cincinnati 13
Denver has won their last two games scoring 35 and 34 points, respectively, while Cincinnati is reeling losing its last 3 contests.  I expect these trends to continue as I project Peyton Manning to throw all over Cincinnati's 25th rank D in terms of points per game allowed.

24 Baltimore at Cleveland 20
People seem to be counting out the Ravens as a contender this year, especially after the injuries to Ladarius Webb and Ray Lewis.  Their offense was anemic two weeks ago against Houston as Joe Flacco struggled on the road and Ray Rice only ran 9 times. However, they are still 5-2 and in sole possession of 1st in the division.  Many are going with a Browns upset at home, but I'm sticking with a Ravens eek-it-out type of win on the road (similar to the last time these two teams met, on a thursday night in September).  Expect Ray Rice to get the rock early and often.

9 Arizona at Green Bay 31
Arizona has lost 4 straight now and Green Bay has won 3 straight.  This is a simple case of two teams headed in completely different directions.  Green Bay wins in a blowout as Arizona can not muster any offense without a run game and John Skelton at the helm.

30 Chicago at Tennessee 3
The Bears are coming off a 1 point win over the 1-6 Panthers and the Titans are coming off an overtime loss against the 4-3 Colts.  I think Chris Johnson reverts back to his classic 14 carries for 24 yards ways (maybe even less yards than that) as the Bears D completely shuts down the Titans.  Look for the Bears D to score 1 or 2 defensive touchdowns as usual.  

10 Miami at Indianapolis 13
Two 4-3 teams with playoff aspirations clash in Indy this week.  I'll take Andrew Luck at home over Tannehill or Matt Moore.  I foresee a wild card spot in Indy's future this year as Andrew Luck is as good as advertised.

31 Carolina at Washington 41
Cam Newton vs Robert Griffin 111.  This game is a fans dream.  Both teams will put up tons of offense in the nations capital, but Carolina's losing ways will continue as RG111 brings his team to 4-5.

16 Detroit at Jacksonville 19
I'm taking the upset pick of the Jags at home.  I think both teams stink but I like Gabbert to have a decent game getting his squad their 2nd win of the year.  Matthew Stafford will confuse many by struggling against the Jags one week after a 352 yard, 3 TD performance against Seattle's staunch D.

7 Buffalo at Houston 26
Great elimination pool pick game here with the Texans home against the Jekyll and Hyde Bills.  Foster will run amuck and Schaub will throw a couple TD in a Texan blowout.  

20 Tampa Bay at Oakland 17
Doug Martin put on a show last week in Minnesota in what was his coming out party to the league.  Josh Freeman gets another win on the road in Oakland bringing Tampa's record to 500.

7 Minnesota at Seattle 20
After a game in which Seattle gave up 28 points, look for them to rebound defensively at home against a struggling Vikings offense.  Christian Ponder has looked like his previous rookie self the past 2 weeks and Adrian Peterson will not find much running room with the Seahawks stuffing the box.  Seattle's elite D returns to form with a win at CenturyLink Field.

16 Pittsburgh at NY Giants 31
Coming off a big win at home against the Skins, I expect Pittsburgh to struggle on the road against the G-Men.  The Giants continue to reel off wins taking their 5th straight.

28 Dallas at Atlanta 17
In my upset special of the week, I have the Cowboys going in the Georgia Dome and taking down the Falcons by double digits.  The Falcons are the only undefeated team left at 7-0, however, I can name a bunch of teams I think are better than them in a vacuum (49ers, Bears, Giants, Texans).  They are not as good as their record indicates and will trip up big-time to the struggling Cowboys.  The key to this game will be if the Cowboys can get off to an early lead.  I like Romo to threw a couple early TD.  Also key in this game will be if DeMarco Murray plays or not (currently questionable).  Regardless, I like the Boys this week, but I don't think Jason Witten snags 18 catches again.  Michael Turner will not be able to run at all over Dallas' solid D forcing Matty Ice to sling it around.  Dallas has a sneaky good D this year even without MLB Sean Lee.

17 Philadelphia at New Orleans 26
It's only a matter of time before Andy Reid gets the boot; he's a terrible coach.  When Vick and crew only muster a measly 17 spot against a New Orleans Saints defense that is giving up 30.9 points per game (30th in the league), speculation will be on the Eagles QB decision and coaching debacle.  Reid said today Vick will be his starter but will see what he says after the Eagles drop this one.  Who Dat nation improves to 3-5 although they aren't going anywhere this year either.

Byes: St. Louis, NY Jets, New England, San Francisco

Last Week: 10-4
Season: 69-49

Release the Hounds (start em)

QB- Cam Newton- going up against the 29th fantasy D v QB, Cam will have a field day.  Start with confidence regardless of his past performance this year
Projection: 303 yds, 2 TD, INT, 60 rush yds, TD... 30 points
RB- Michael Bush- for a deeper league, look for Bush to get back to being involved in the offense.  I expect the Bears to be up big meaning a lot of running in the 2nd half.  Maybe he'll vulture a TD or 2.                    
Projection: 12 carries, 50 yds, TD... 11 points
WR- Denarius Moore.. he isn't getting much attention but he has reached paydirt 4 of the past 5 weeks. Going against a Buccaneer D that is 30th against WR, look for a long TD for Denarius
Projection: 4 rec, 104 yds, TD... 16 points
TE- Greg Olsen... Washington is 31st against TE and I expect this one to be a slugfest.  Look for Olsen to find the endzone.
Projection: 6 rec, 73 yds, TD... 13 points
D/ST- GB D/ST...  Arizona has allowed double digits to defenses in their last 5 games and the Packers have scored positive numbers all year...
Projection: 9 points allowed, 7 sacks, 2 INT... 15 points

Ride the Pine (sit em)

QB- Andy Dalton- Broncos D will be applying the pressure all day and he's coming off a 6 pt dud vs pitt.
Projection: 247 yds, TD, 2 INT... 9 points
RB- C.J Spiller- he's only been averaging 12 carries the past 2 weeks and against Houston's D, that's not going to lead to many points
Projection: 10 carries, 41 yds... 4 points
WR- Julio Jones- Dallas is the 7th best D against WR... Also, Julio/Roddy have been switching off performing every other week.  In every week, one has had double digits points and one hasn't.  Last week, it was Julio who copped 123 yards and a score.  It's Rowdy Roddy's turn to explode this week.
Projection: 3 rec, 31 yds... 3 points
TE- Jimmy Graham- Philly locks down TE (5th against TE) so look for Brees to attack vertically/outside the numbers
Projection: 6 rec, 52 yds... 5 points
D/ST- ARI D/ST- They are 5th in points but do not be fooled, Rodgers will go to town on Sunday.
Projection: 31 points allowed, 3 sacks... -1 points

Chinese word of the day: 厨房 (Chúfáng) definition: kitchen
source:  Kimi Shi kimi shi fb

No comments:

Post a Comment