In a year where there are no great teams in college basketball and parity reigns supreme, the best four teams are not going to get all of the one seeds. Therefore, DO NOT GO CHALK! However, I have the balls to tell you exactly who the best four teams are right now. These four are Duke, Louisville, Kansas, and Michigan State.
1)
Duke: Everyone knows that Duke, a projected one seed in
expert bracketologist and amateur antique train collector Joe Lunardi's
bracket, is undefeated with a healthy Ryan Kelly. Every Duke fan in America
must be thrilled beyond belief that Coach K rebelled against society and did
not put his trusty horse down when he suffered a foot injury3
I could've just imagined the all the Cameron Crazies gathered around Ryan Kelly at midcourt in Cameron Indoor Stadium, who is lying down in a pile of hay. Coach K silently walks over, strokes Kelly's beard and whispers "it will all be over soon...shhh...shhh... quit your nay-ing. You’re going to a better place.” Had this had happened, Duke would have been poised for a second round knockout to a team similar to Colorado State, San Diego State, or Wichita State. Yet, Kelly lives, and now Duke’s offense is virtually unguardable as teams have to decide whether they are going to single-team Mason Plumlee in the post, double him and leave either Quinn Cook (42.5 three point FG%), Seth Curry (43.5 three point FG%), Rasheed Sulaimon (38.5 three point FG%) or the aforementioned Ryan Kelly who shoots an unholy 53% from downtown, wide open. Also, Duke’s dribble drive and pick and roll game reach new heights when Kelly is in the lineup. Yet, the surprising thing is that with Kelly, Duke is in the top 30 in the country in defensive efficiency. Without Kelly, Duke doesn’t even crack the top 150! Duke is 18-0 with Kelly this season with wins over Kentucky (who was ranked 3rd in the country at that time), Minnesota, VCU, and Louisville all on a neutral court. Add in wins against Ohio State, Temple, Davidson, Miami, and at UNC and you have an 18 game resume that’s almost too strong to believe. Overall, when you add up the best senior leadership in America (Mason Plumlee, Seth Curry, and Ryan Kelly), the best coach in America4, and the return of Ryan Kelly, Duke has a great chance to cut down the nets. However, if Duke faces a team with quick guards and multiple three point shooters, Duke will be in trouble.
2)
Louisville: The newest one seed in wanna-be Gringotts
Banker Joe Lunardi’s bracket has flown under the radar for most of the year.
With wins over Missouri, Memphis, Kentucky (with
Nerlens Noel), Marquette, Syracuse, and Notre Dame and no bad losses to speak
of, Rick Pitino’s group has been as consistent as anyone in the nation. Also,
like Duke they have a fantastic mix of veteran leadership and great coaching.
Of the six players averaging over 20 minutes a game, three are juniors (Russ
Smith, Gorgui Deng, and Luke Hancock), one is a senior (Peyton Siva), and
sophomores Chane Behanan and Wayne Blackshear are both former McDonald’s
All-Americans and potential first round draft picks. But what separates
Louisville from their competition is the full-court press they inflict on their
opponents for 40 minutes a game. This college basketball season has suffered
from historically weak point guard play, as evidenced by no true point guards
(sorry Marcus Smart5) even cracking the top 10 in Chad Ford’s NBA
Big Board. What this means is that players who lack either the ball-handling,
passing, intelligence, or composure to break Louisville’s press are going to be
swarmed for the full length of the court like they had just stepped on a bee
hive and insulted all of the bees mothers’. That’s not even the best part of
their press. My favorite part is when the opposing team breaks the press, feels
like they have a sure-fire basket, only to be rejected by the second-best
interior defender in college (keep reading if you want to know who is the best…
you see what I did there?) Gorgui Deng. It’s pretty much the equivalent of
finding out you guessed the right answer on the test, but filled it in the
wrong bubble on the scantron6. What is most impressive is that unlike some
teams with lesser coaches, Rick Pitino’s Cardinals are not a one-trick-pony. On
March 2nd, Louisville faced their rival’s Syracuse at the Carrier
Dome for a huge battle in the Big East (also their last regular-season battle
in the Big East). Recognizing that Syracuse was both too athletic to press and
possessed Michael Carter-Williams, one of the few point guard’s in the country
who coaches should be afraid to pressure, Louisville played a zone defense.
This forced Syracuse to play to their weakness, shooting jump shots. As a
result, Syracuse scored a measly 53 points, well below their season average of
73.2 points per game. It is this kind of versatility that is ineffably valuable
in a tournament setting. The only real obstacle I see for Louisville is the
play of their point guard, Peyton Siva. When Siva is going, Louisville is
nearly impossible to stop. However, Siva did not make the jump everyone hoped
he would take from his junior to senior season. There are only slight upticks
in his stats across the board and he is even failing to average double digits
in scoring. Considering, that Louisville is terrible offensively in the half
court in close games (five point loss to Duke, two point loss to Syracuse, two
point loss to Georgetown, and a 5OT loss to Notre Dame by three points) they
need somebody to step up and hit clutch shots. Considering that Siva is the
best player on the team with the balls to take the big shots, I would be a lot
more comfortable picking them to go deep in March if he was more consistent.
3)
Kansas: Now a 2 seed in your local Rabbi aka Joe
Lunardi’s bracket, Kansas is no longer a sexy pick to win it all. After losing
three straight to Oklahoma State, TCU, and Oklahoma, and then a recent blow-out
loss to Baylor, Kansas has cast a long and gloomy shadow over their otherwise
amazing season. If you look back at their schedule in its entirety, you see
strong impressive wins over Saint Louis, Colorado, Belmont, at Ohio State,
Temple, Baylor, Kansas State (twice), and at Oklahoma State. But the real key
for me is in the wealth of talent that is at Bill Self’s disposal. First, there
is Travis Releford who I believe is one of the best players in the country that
no one is talking about. The 6-6 senior not only provides great leadership,
toughness, and the rest of the intangibles that are so important to winning,
but he is extraordinary on the court. While leading the Jayhawks in minutes,
Releford scores 12 points per game, registers over a steal per game, and makes
solid contributions in both rebounds and assists. But, what takes Releford’s
game to a new level is his efficiency. He shoots 80% from the free throw line,
44% from downtown, and a ridiculous 58% from the field. I feel required to
remind you that he is a guard, not a center, who leads the team in minutes and
STILL SHOTS 58% FROM THE FLOOR! These numbers are only slight worse than
Indiana’s very own Victor Oladipo who may go first overall in the draft7.
Yet, the proverbial cherry on the sundae is that Releford is easily the best
perimeter defender in the big 12, can guard three positions, and shuts down the
opponents best perimeter scorer on a night in, night out basis. His versatility
and expertise make him the ultimate chess piece for Bill Self to outwit
opposing coaches. Next, you have Elijah Johnson who is pretty much the JR Smith
of the NCAAB. While he shoots far too low a percentage for someone with his
skills, he has the ability to force turnovers (one steal per game), rebound
well for a point guard (3 RPG), create for teammates (5 APG) but most importantly
he can single handedly win Kansas ball games. Want proof? Look no further than
on February 25th, where Elijah Johnson scored 39 points while
simultaneously dishing 7 dimes and snagging five rebounds to beat Iowa State.
Simply put, if Elijah Johnson is feeling it during the tourney, Kansas is going
to win it all. Down low, Kansas has Jeff Withey, who not only is the best post
defender in college basketball; he is also an emerging scoring option. From his
sophomore year to his present senior year, Jeff Withey’s scoring has increased
from 2.3 to 13.6 PPG. Along with that, Withey shoots 58% from the field and is
a respectable FT shooter at 70%. But, I feel like I would have failed all of
you if I did not quickly mention just how scary good of a defender Withey is.
He averages 4 BPG (not a typo), grabs 8.6 RPG helping to finish off defensive
possessions, and gets nearly one steal a game. Though, what is most impressive
is that Withey averages less than 2 personal fouls per game. That means he has
more than double as many blocks (124) this year than personal fouls (60)! This is
fucking unfathomable. I didn’t even think this could be done by a 7 footer
playing against dwarves in a “no blood, no foul” pick-up game…shit. I’m amazed I’ve
gone this far without even mentioning the potential first overall pick in this
year’s NBA Draft, Ben McLemore8. As a redshirt freshman, McLemore
leads the Jayhawks in scoring with 16.7 PPG, gives a great contribution on the
glass with 5.3 RPG, and amazingly shoots 50% from the field, 86% from the line,
and 43% from deep. For any guard, let alone a freshman guard, these numbers are
quite imposing. What sets Ben McLemore apart is the variety of ways he can
score. He can drive to the rack and dunk over big men (I’d advise you to check YouTube).
He can play the part of Ray Allen and come around screens and knock down shots.
His mid-range game is fairly deadly and you certainly don’t want to foul him.
McLemore is the offensive matchup that opposing coaches will have nightmares
about. When you pair Releford, Johnson, Withey, and McLemore with the perfect
role player and glue-guy in senior Kevin Young, McDonalds All-American Perry
Ellis, and spark-plug Naadir Thorpe, you have a flat out deadly roster. But why
would I choose Kansas over, let’s say Indiana, who has equally great talent in
Cody Zeller, Victor Oladipo, Christian Wattford, and company? It’s simple; Bill
Self is a better coach than Tom Crean, or Thad Matta from Ohio State, or
Michigan’s John Beilein. Similarly to Rick Pitino, Bill Self is unbelievably
flexible on defense. His teams will press to push the tempo against less
athletic teams, play man to man the majority of the time, go zone against teams
who can’t shoot, or just to drive coaches fucking crazy when they go to the
rare triangle-and-two defense. With the perfect pieces in lengthy perimeter
defenders Releford and McLemore, and rim protector Jeff Withey this gives
opposing teams fits. It is impossible to prepare for due to the short time
window in the tournament setting, hardly any other team in the country breaks
it out, and it is extinct in high-school basketball and the NBA for that matter.
Last year, Kansas pulled away from Ohio State in the final four when they broke
out the triangle-and-two, and almost came back from nearly twenty points to
beat Kentucky after they started playing the triangle-and-two. This year, I
believe the combination of strong talent and Bill Self’s genius will guide
Kansas deep in the tourney.
4)
Michigan State: Currently a three seed according to
electric triangle aficionado Joe Lunardi, Michigan State always exceeds expectation
in the NCAA Tournament. This is because head coach Tom Izzo is some sort of
wizard who always pulls wins out of his you-know-where when he has to. In the
last 15 seasons Izzo’s teams have made at least the sweet 16 a crazy ten times.
He has reached the final four 6 times, meaning he has made it to at least the
final four as many times as he has failed to reach the sweet 16. This is simply
incredible. This year Izzo has a very talented team with Keith Appling running
the show, potential lottery pick freshman Gary Harris making buckets, and
Derrick Nix, Brendan Dawson, and Adreian Payne crashing the glass and setting
Kevin Garnett-esque screens. But in all honesty, they really aren’t that
important. Izzo could take a group of rag-tag Somalian Pirates and lead them to
at least the round of 32. All you, my fellow bracketeer, must know is that
Michigan State will out rebound, out hustle, out rebound, out tough, and did I
say out rebound everyone in their path. It doesn’t hurt that Michigan State is
experienced, battle-tested, and deep. Personally, I think Adreian Payne is a
player that most teams can’t match up with and I expect him to put the team on
his back, Greg Jennings style, for at least one win this tournament. Payne is
6-10 Junior who scores 10 PPG, gets 7.5 RPG, steals and blocks about 1 ball per
game, and can score from everywhere. He hits 81% from the line, 56.6% from the
floor, and 45% from three. Again, he is 6-10. Michigan State also has wins over
Kansas, Boise State, Ohio State, Wisconsin (twice), Minnesota, and Michigan and
no bad losses on their record. Nobody should question their resume. If Keith
Appling actually brings his game during March (big if), and doesn’t sink under
the pressure like he did against Indiana both times, and at Ohio State and
Michigan, Michigan State could win it all.
Top
5 Cinderella Candidates (Not in Order)
5)
Wichita State: An 11 seed according to famed
hypochondriac Joe Lunardi, the Wichita State Shockers are slowly becoming one
of the most consistent mid-majors in the nation. For some background, Wichita
State has appeared in nine NCAA Tournaments in their history, play in the
difficult Missouri Valley Conference, and are coached by the well-respected
Gregg Marshall who is in his fourth season with the team. Most notably, Wichita
State was ranked as high as 14 in the coaches poll last year and were ranked as
a 5 seed in the tournament, but lost to VCU in the round of 64. Wichita State
lost Garret Stutz, Joe Ragland, and the majority of their core from last year,
but like all great teams they have re-loaded and adapted. Gregg Marshall’s team
plays at a painfully slow tempo, but that results in his team shortening the
game and helps them neutralize the talent gap they have to play against. They
have wins against Creighton and VCU this year, which are marquee wins for any
team. They also rank 23rd in the country in the Basketball
Percentage Index. I personally wouldn’t predict the Shockers to go far in
March, but a round 1 win is certainly not out of the question.
4) Belmont: A projected 12 seed by real housewife of ESPN, Joe Lunardi, the Belmont Bruins have become a perennial tournament team making it 5 out of the last 7 years. Known for the tempo on offense that Coach Rick Byrd preaches, Belmont is 16th in the nation in PPG and 4th in the nation in FG%. Unlike Wichita State, they are exciting to watch, and nearly everyone on their roster is a threat from the three line. Ian Clark and Kerron Johnson are two senior guards that would pose a challenge to every team in the nation. With wins over Stanford, Middle Tennessee, South Dakota State, Morehead State (twice), and Ohio, Belmont has won some difficult games. They also have tested themselves by playing two out of conference games at VCU and at Kansas. Although they lost both, these two experiences will help them come March. Belmont’s up temp offense, full-court press defense, and their three point barrage mindset make them difficult to prepare for because they are unlike most teams in the country. Belmont ranks 51st in the BPI and it would be higher if the Ohio Valley Conference was slightly stingier. I believe Belmont could potentially make the sweet 16 with favorable matchups, and should be a pick you highly consider in the first round. This is especially true if they are a twelve seed9
3) Davidson: Projected as a 12 seed, Davidson is a force to be reckoned with. After beating the College of Charleston 74-55 in the Southern Conference Championship to earn an automatic berth to the Big Dance, Davidson is poised to make some noise. Even though sharp shooting Steph Curry won’t be suiting up for Davidson, you shouldn’t look past the Wildcats. They have won 17 games in a row, and have only lost 2 games since Christmas. And one of those was at Duke! I love picking teams that don’t remember what losing feels like. They barely lost at New Mexico in the beginning of the year, which is an impressive feat. They played Gonzaga and Duke (with Ryan Kelly) to close ball-games, and both teams going to be number 1 seeds. They have a few bad losses, and they lack great wins, but they have torn apart the Southern Conference and are a very talented team. They are led by Junior De’Mon Brooks10 who was co-Southern Conference Player of the Year with his own teammate Jake Cohen last year. At 6-7, Brooks will be a matchup nightmare all tournament long, and dropped 24 points and 8 rebounds in the conference championship game. Brooks along with Senior Jake Cohen help to ensure open looks for Senior Nick Cochran who shoots 48.5% from deep and 94.1% (not a typo) from the free throw line. Davidson is led by Coach Bob McKillop who has over 400 wins at Davidson alone, has won conference coach of the year 7 times, and will probably win it again this year. If that’s not enough, Coach K called McKillop a “treasure” and “really one of the most coveted coaches in the country”. Davidson will not be out schemed or out executed by anyone. I think Davidson, like Belmont could go to the sweet 16 with the right draw.
2) South Dakota State: Like Davidson, South Dakota State already has a tourney bid signed, sealed, and delivered after beating North Dakota State 73-67 in the Summit League Title Game. World renowned soccer-mom and part time bracketologist, Joe Lunardi has them lower than Davidson, however, placing them at a disappointingly low 14 seed. Unlike Davidson, South Dakota State is not a solidified mid-major powerhouse. The Jackrabbits have only been in Division 1 for 6 years, yet have now made the tournament in back to back seasons. Head Coach Scott Nagy deserves tons of credit for creating a winning program this quickly, but he also struck the lottery in getting 6-4 guard Nate Wolters to play for him. Now a senior, Wolters is fourth in the nation in scoring, averaging 22.7 PPG while adding nearly 6 assists, 6 rebounds, and 2 steals. Wolters can single handedly win South Dakota State ball-games, as depicted by his 53 point performance against IPFW. Wolters is not your typical mid-major jump shooter. He has an array of floaters and runners, he can drive to the rim, and he can shoot off the bounce and the catch. And while it’s not all about Wolters, Junior Jordan Dykstra gets 12.5 PPG and 8 RPG, it really is just about Wolters. He is capable of carrying South Dakota State deep into the tournament a la Steph Curry, and he has true star power. South Dakota State has also shown the ability to play against better opponents, beating New Mexico at New Mexico this year, and nearly beating Baylor in the first (or now second round) round of last year’s tournament. I believe that South Dakota State will probably lose in the first round because of poor seeding, but I also believe that if Wolters gets hot, they could go to the sweet 16 or further.
1)
VCU: This one is probably no surprise to anyone as the
VCU Rams have been ranked in the AP and Coaches Poll a couple of times this
year, made the Final Four two years ago, and won a game last year in the
tournament over Wichita State and nearly beat Indiana the next round. But I
believe that ESPN and the rest of the national media have been too quiet on
exactly how impressive VCU has been this year. They have played 15 teams with a
top 100 BPI, an astounding number for a non-Big-6 Conference team. They are 8-7
in these games. Consequently, this means that VCU has not lost to a team outside
of the top 100 all year! With wins against Memphis, Belmont, Dayton, Xavier,
Butler, and Richmond, VCU has a few solid resume wins to inspire confidence in
all bracketeers. Close losses to Duke, Wichita State, Missouri, and St. Louis
also show promise for the tourney. What sets VCU apart is their “Havoc Defense”
which causes opponents to play at a blisteringly fast pace. It is a man-to-man
full court pressure which is so effective due to constant adjustments and
double teams. This has led to VCU lead the country in steals and forced
turnovers. Their defense is IMPOSSIBLE
to prepare for, brings misery to opposing teams, and is the reason VCU is so
successful come March. Shaka Smart has made his squad a matchup nightmare. They
are fast, long, skilled, and they all follow the mold of their head coach.
Smart, determined, and tough as fucking nails. When you add in the fact that
they hit threes, and are 23rd in the country in offensive rebounding
percentage it’s no wonder why most teams are even scared to schedule the Rams.
In my opinion this team can go as far as the Final Four.
***I’d also like to apologize for all the names I called Joe Lunardi, I’m just
jealous cause he has one of the easiest and coolest jobs in the country.***
1This is when you ask what conference
Creighton plays in.
Expected answers: "you know, the same one
Butler plays in." "ummm.... I don’t know, the Little East?"
"C'mon, conferences are changing all the time now, that's a clown question
bro!"
Actual answer: The Missouri Valley Conference
2trademarked
3Suck it Barbaro
4If you needed
to look down here to know that Duke is coached by Mike Krzyzweski, you should
stop reading this article, rip your bracket in half, and be sentenced to a full
week romantic get-away with Joe Lunardi. And yes, Joe Lunardi does need that
sun-tan lotion applied all-over. Twice. Just to make sure.
5Just thought you should know that Marcus Smart may
have the best nickname in all of college basketball…. “Smartacus”… yeah suck on
that “Never Nervous Rodney Purvis”
6We’ve all been there…it still hurts
7Victor shoots 61% from the floor, 46% from three
point land, and 75% from the charity line. This is by no means a knock on
Victor Oladipo who is one of my favorite players in the country. Victor also
averages 13.7 PPG, 6.2 RPG, and an absurd .8 blocks from a shooting guard and
2.2 steals per game.
8 I will refrain from all Ben “Macklemore” jokes. I
will not tell you that McLemore is shooting 43.4% percent from the “thrift
shop” or that he’s “popping 1.1 tags a game”… If that’s what you want, you are
hopeless.
9Read Zach’s article “Win the Pool; Swim in the
Money” for why 12 seeds are awesome
10Don’t you wish
his parents removed the apostrophe from his name and called him “Demon”. Demon
Brooks would be sooooo much better than De’Mon Brooks at basketball.
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